"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, December 28, 2012

Gradually Warmer Through Saturday

Generalization of Temperature Spreads around 8:30AM This Friday Morning
TODAY: Gradually warmer today with light winds. Cloud cover increase most likely over the SW part of the state spreading NE, especially toward Central within an hour of sunset, although some patchy clouds could materialize prior to that time. Otherwise, fairly cool but not bad with highs Central Line between 68F and 72F and warmer into the 72-75F range far South Central and South, and cooler north in the mid 60Fs,

TONIGHT: Increased cloud cover should prevent overnight lows from falling as much as they did last night into early this morning as winds become light from the east and eventually ESE-SE duing the day Saturday. Winds aloft already coming from the SW under the shallow easterly type flow near the surface/ground level. Coastal lows (along A1A) , especially from the Cape South, might bottom out only near sunset, and even warm a few degrees by sunrise.

SATURDAY: Frontal boundary entering the panhandle with rain showers and some thunder 'possible' north of I4 toward South Tampa Bay, but at this point lack of instability and increasingly unilateral flow from the surface to aloft would prevent upward lift in the presence of lack of a triggering mechanism. Although, the region from near Brooksville south to South Tampa could see some measurable rains and thunder, areas to the east would be stabilized further under upstream blow-off cloud cover. Rain-shower chance though is present most all day long on Saturday as well as cloud cover.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Frontal boundary to slide south of Dead Central close to an hour before sunset with cloud cover remaining for a few hours with rapid clearing mid evening toward midnight from Central to South. Cold/dry air intrusion commences in full around sunrise, thus, daytime highs on Sunday on the cool side.

SUNDAY: Cold air infiltration (advection) accompanied by dry conditions peak out mid morning with little change during the day. Highs dead Central and north might be lucky to crack 60F, with low to mid 60Fs further south. Winds slowly veer toward the NE-E rather quickly ahead of yet another frontal boundary heading toward Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Gradual warm up into Monday and Tuesday as frontal boundary sinks toward Central. So far, it appears it will go nearly stationary for nearly 36 hours, accompanied by some cloud cover, but shower chances are not overly impressive so far across Central and South until after frontal passage in an over-running type set up. This will need to be re-evaluated as that time draws nigh. The region north of I-4 toward I10 might not be so lucky closer to and behind where the boundary rests, awaiting greater push from the north as a mid level trough passes further to the north by a good 36 hours.

NEW YEARS DAY: Looks rather   warm contingent on cloud cover with highs either way in the low-mid 70Fs if not upper 70Fs. Winds SW at 12-20mph during the afternoon.

BEYOND: So far, it appears that after Sunday morning/day..we could be in for yet another shift in the overall synoptic scale (broad scale) pattern for much of the United States, mostly affecting on the warm side the Deep Southeast , especially Florida into South Georgia and Alabama. Could see a good period of round the clock 60Fs and 70Fs "Florida". And, if the GFS trend continues, it would be potentially above average temperatures during the onset of the coldest time of year some years for Central and South Florida. Fingers crossed. Guidance has swung through all extremes from possible severe, to plain out wet, to near nothing happening at all. But in all cases, no big cold spell has yet to be foreseen to match any previous ones to date since the colder season commenced.

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