"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 22, 2016

Showers to Isolated Brief Strong Storms: Then Coldest of Season Yet Still

Storybook Mid Afternoon Thursday 

TODAY: No real surprises. Anyone who has seen the news or heard media outlets by now will know that there is a chance of a strong storm due to wind gusts or a brief tornado in quickly moving storm activity ahead of advancing cold front today. 

Southerly wind gusting to 20 mph late morning toward early afternoon to become more SSW - SW beyond 1 -2 pm. The time period for North Central and Central for a tornadic type spin-up appears to be from West to East roughly between noon - 2pm as noted in the graphic below. A secondary area toward the Keys and SW Florida might also be worth a heightened level of awareness a bit later in the day. Image below is only a guestimate. As of 5AM the Storm Prediction Center has a 'tornado interest' out for all areas north of the purple line drawn in across Central Florida.

Otherwise, chance of showers emerges between 10:30 - 11:30 AM across parts of South Central to North Central and North Florida both along the front itself and into Central along a quickly evolving pre-frontal trough as higher dewpoint air advances northward ahead of the front and along the trough. 

 The broader 'threat' for today is gusting winds in and near any storms but even in only some rainshowers . In general , apart from SW Florida the main interest will be on strong straight line winds. Any and all weather events will be quite brief but regardless, potentially 'disturbing'.

Front to clear all of North Central toward Central in the 5-6PM Time frame. See below

Best Guess for Cold Front's Position around 5PM
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: Nothing new here. Rather breezy post frontal passage (FROPA) through Friday night and all of Saturday. Wind from the west gusting upward toward 30mph and much colder with temperatures  Central holding in the lower-mid 50Fs all day. Still watching for at least a broken cloud deck across the sky in the lower levels until at least mid-afternoon if not longer with a few sprinkles here and there if not even showers toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY MORNING:  Coldest / driest intrusion to punch southeast from the panhandle after midnight. Jury is out on just exactly how cold but the NAM model for example now is teetering with the freezing mark in such locations as the Orlando area toward I-95 as far south as South Central Osceola County. 

The immediate beaches from the Cape toward Vero Beach might see anything between 34F - 39F with wind from the NW around 10-15mph as wind will have died off a bit as the parent surface low moves further away and the pressure gradient relaxes. 

The GFS model is not quite as cold however as the NAM , running about 5 degrees warmer particularly toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Very cool again all day after the coldest morning yet of the winter season but much improved sky and wind conditions. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs with winds relaxing more and more as the day wears on.

MONDAY: The coldest air on this 'drainage morning' will be closer to the Orlando area and west down I27 toward the Tampa region. The immediate east coast from the Cape and south could well be 10-15F degrees warmer Monday morning than Sunday with light wind. Highs in the lower to mid 60Fs.

BEYOND: Tuesday looks to warm into the 70Fs and to be a very pleasant day 'round the clock. Next front slated for the 27-28th time frame. 

So far, the next front will not be like our previous visitors and might well lollygag a bit before making it's final exit. It will be a very shallow boundary at first.  

For example, on Wednesday the surface front is shown to be running diagonally from NE to SW across North and Central Florida while at only 2000 feet above ground the boundary is still back in the panhandle.

 Looks like a chance of storms though on the 27th well in advance of the front (Central and South)followed potentially by a brief over-running rain period and with very cool temperatures before the colder and drier air finally works south and east going into late week.  Maybe even some thunder mainly Central and South Florida Wednesday afternoon.

THURSDAY: Continued chance of cloud cover and/or some rain even in the post-frontal environment.

BEYOND: Cooler and dry, with very cool to cold morning inland locations. Light wind for several days stringed together. Temps running around 'normal' for this time of year.

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