"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

I Love a Parade (Except the Clowns!)

(Images depict classic drainage flow locally. Nationally, a parade of low pressure systems march across the country).
Another stellar day on tap! Dawn is breaking with an absolutely clear sky and dead calm wind as expected. High pressure centered overhead and a clear sky are providing for classic radiational cooling coupled with a very cool drainage flow down the spine of the state. As usual the coolest air is found west of the Banana River, but that will soon be a faded memory as pure, unadulatered sunshine beams on in.
There is no change at all from yesterday's thinking. The high pressure currently planted over the peninsula will ever so slowly drift east this afternoon and be centered just off the coast by late afternoon with no other systems near by. As a result, today will be predominantly clear with continued very light winds. A very light easterly wind will develop by early afternoon which will affect only those areas east of Merritt Island. As mentioned yesterday, the temperature will rise quickly between 9-10am..and likely get very close to the 70 degree mark. The temperature away from the coast may get up to about 72 but, again, the area east of Merritt Island will feel the affect of 58 degree ocean waters and will drop back to around 67 as soon as the onshore component ensues. Clouds will be close to non-existent most of the day.

Thursday: The morning temperatures will be dictated along the coast by a very light southeast wind in prelude to the next approaching system which will greatly impact the Deep South (mainly Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, West Florida Panhandle). Clouds will be on the increase at daybreak. Odd as it may seem, although the light east wind cool things off during the day it will prevent overnight temperatures from falling off as much as they would otherwise, hence Thursday morning will start out in the upper 50s rather than the lower 50s as they did this morning. During the course of the day the wind will gain more of a southerly to eventually SSW component by late day (note...NOT off the ocean by that time). Hence, by mid afternoon we'll be seeing mid to even upper 70s everywhere including the coast. Don't think there'll be enough clouds to offset the warming affect of the sun. In other words, another very nice day until very late in the day as clouds will continue to be on the increase.

Late Thursday Night into Friday: The low pressure system tracking across the Deep South will continue in east to ENE fashion slowly inching a frontal system across the Florida-Georgia border. Storms, some possibly strong will blanket the extreme northern portions of the state, but as stated yesterday Central and South Florida will essentially dodge the bullet (by a hair). This is the tricky part though, so it's advised that one remain abreast of the very latest conditions should you need to venture out in the wee hours of Friday there is a remote chance of a thunderstorm as far south as a Melbourne-Tampa line. That's not to say it won't rain though. Expect that some rain showers will enter the area sometime after midnight and continue until at least mid-morning Friday. It's worth noting at this point that one of the models continues the rain for the majority of Friday...but I'm not playing the devils advocate at this point and believe that for the most part this 'rain' will manifest itself as overcast skies. Strong/Severe storms are in the cards further north however. With healthy to even breezy SW to WSW winds all day Friday the temperature will be allowed to warm to the upper 70s to even near 80. The only fly in the ointment as far as temperatures is concerned is whether or not it will be rainy. Rain/clouds will damper down the high temperature a notch, but for the time being I don't think the rain will be widespread and/or prolonged enough to prevent us from getting into the upper 70s. But it won't be a stellar day.

Overnight Friday into Saturday: The front will essentially wash out right over us and pull off to the east never making a clear passage through Central Florida. The wind will start out from the west but high pressure ridging down the Appalachians in the wake of the system will again result in the dreaded onshore component on Saturday, thus keeping the high temperature along the immediate coast at bay in the upper 60s. Temperatures from US1 and points west will likely reach the upper 70s again on Saturday though.

Sunday: Our in between day as yet the next participant in the parade heads this way for Monday. The wind will again swing around to the south ahead of the next system and allow temperatures across the entire region to warm into the upper 70s once again.

Late Monday and Beyond: At this time, it appears the next system / front will be laying squarely across Central Florida at daybreak Tuesday morning (accompanied by rain). This front will cleaning pass across the entire peninsula and be well out to sea by the end of the day Tuesday....but no tremendous temperature drop will follow although it will be cooler. The days following into midweek will be characterized by partly cloud skies and cool temperatures..but not outright cold.

At this time, unlike as feared yesterday, it does not look like another cold spell such as we had earlier in the month is anywhere on the horizon. The fur lined coat and gloves will remain at the back of the closet for now. By mid-February they go into storage!

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