(Image: Rain shower over the Beachline (528) as it moves over Cocoa, FL heading toward Port Canaveral yesterday)
RECAP: As was expected, yesterday was almost null of thunderstorms over South and Central Florida other than a boomer over NE Osceola County in the early evening which died as it headed toward the Brevard County line. Other than that one, there was a wide 'sparcity' of rain showers which moved off the coast from near Satellite Beach up to Jacksonville. The sea breeze over Central Florida never reached much further west than I-95.
SYNOPSIS: Not much change from yesterday with surface-mid level ridge over South Florida and frontal boundary pulling off the NE to mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal region. Higher pressure is building south behind the frontal boundary to somewhere hear the N/S Carolina boarder region. Locally, we have the high pressure axis over south Florida but the upper level high appears to be forecast to be located very close to East/Central Florida or just off shore by sunset. Already, the KSC sounding is showing dryer PWATs today...but with a slightly veering wind profile aloft from yesterday (mainly from west to east). Additionally, the 500mb temp is about a degree or two cooler, but then again the mid-level temp. is a degree or two warmer.
The only the notably different from yesterday is that there appears to be an earlier onset of very widely spread rain showers pushing across N/Central Florida and into the immediate Central portions (like the Orlando area) as well as of noon. With a westerly steering current of about 15kts just above the surface we are getting just a little later than normal sea-breeze onset, but with PAFB already having gone light and variable..the sea-breeze will be in session from around KSC and all points south by 1pm.
TODAY: With the sea breeze having begun from at least near Cape Canaveral and points south by 1pm and continued prevailing westerlies not far above our heads..believe the sea breeze will again have a hard time reaching much further west than I-95 as far south as perhaps Vero Beach. My initial impression from visible satellite imagery animation is that the west coast sea breeze has already worked into far Western Orange and Osceola and Lake Counties, placing its arrival to the east coast or along I-95 from Titusville south in the 3:00pm near Titusville to about 5pm down by Vero Beach time frame (and possibly even up to an hour earlier than that)....and all points in between sometime between those two times. The breeze is not as enhanced as it was yesterday, as yesterday it had earlier west coast storm outflow to give it an additional shove. Rain showers are depicted along the west coast sea breeze though as I write as it heads from west to east seemingly unimpeded by the light easterly winds up at max rain shower top levels as shown by the cirrus streaking back opposite the direction of motion. Storm motion will initially be from West to East but may veer by late in the day to more of a WNW-ESE direction.
With all said, today should be pretty much a carbon copy of yesterday as far a rain storm intensity and locations goes...but perhaps eventually affecting a larger area of real estate from Tampa east to near Melbourne Beach and all areas north of that line, with all areas from Orlando east best being impacted noticeably earlier. With the earlier time frame, can't discount some renegade storms forming just about anywhere well behind the west coast sea breeze as we work into the early evening hours...mostly north of a Vero Beach - Tampa line. I am interested to see what will happen along the immediate East Coast from Cape Canaveral to around Melbourne Beach late in the day, particularly if the mid-level winds due indeed veer at all....this could give storms an extra boost and slight turning in the mid-levels if this does occur.
Further south, I'm somewhat in a quandary as to what could happen south of Vero. The models as well as the Storm Prediction Center are indicating precip. as far south as Miami from I-95 and west of there by very late in the afternoon, but sounding data and current radar/satellite trends are not hinting at this to occur. Thus, interested to see what occurs over the region bounded by St. Lucie, Okeechobee, and Palm Beach Counties later today.
TOMORROW: Not much exciting to discuss. Looks like the east coast sea breeze will have an earlier initiation time for almost all of the Florida Coast with not as much of a push back toward the east during the mid-late afternoon hours as mid level winds weaken. Therefore, believe most rain activity will be limited to inland areas for most of the peninsula. We'll have to recheck on that during the course of a couple more model runs to see what evolves before posting tomorrow morning though.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: So far this time frame is looking pretty darned uneventful for the East Coast if not most of the peninsula as far as robust thunderstorms goes...will have to watch to see what happens to a somewhat mid-level backdoor boundary being shoved south off the U.S. East Coast by ridging to the north..as well as how that boundary interacts with lingering low pressure over the N. Gulf Coast region. Lots more will be revealed, but for now I'll suffice it to say that nothing remarkable is in the makings for the next 2-3 days. Also to watch for may be a mid-level low to form north of the Bahamas at the tail end of the mid-level trough as the remaining portions of the trough push off well into the Atlantic.