"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Slight Chance of Storms Tomorrow - Bleak Midwinter Next Week

Sunrise, January 10 , 2018 Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant and rather 'muggy' by early January standards. Wind is swinging around to the south today at long last (!) but not for long, sad to say.  Meanwhile pleasant day in store as cloud clear up, afternoon clouds here and there with a small chance of showers mainly across the interior later this afternoon to early evening. Meanwhile...

TONIGHT - FRIDAY: Another powerful upper level trough is cranking east and south down the Central Plains with a very sharp frontal boundary developing ahead of it. The front will extend south well into the Central Gulf during the overnight with some thunderstorm convection developing along the southern bounds of it; cold air intrudes immediately behind the boundary at this stage.

Both the GFS and NAM imply the development of a pre-frontal boundary to develop ahead of the main front over night and more so as the system approaches Florida from the west through north.

Friday from Early Afternoon toward Sunset (West to East) 

The NAM is very aggressive with the wind shift associated with the prefrontal trough (hence, low level convergence) as well as the amount of surface based instability that will form over the state during the day tomorrow. The GFS takes a much more subtle approach to the whole matter and does not look impressed. The NAM does at times seem to be on steroids but if it pans out, wording in local forecasts might need to be 'hedged up' a few notches in the 'thunderstorm' category mainly for areas of Central   and North (especially for parts of Lake , Volusia and Seminole Counties) .For now, just a heads up otherwise:

SATURDAY: The cold front to move through the state after dark Friday night, post pre-frontal boundary. Though behind this front the air mass will not be like our former northern visitor of late, it will still be cool again. After that last go -around we'll be able to deal with the punches a bit better though (hopefully).

The next several days show mainly lows in the 40Fs and highs in lower to mid-60Fs with warmest over night along the immediate east coast after Sunday morning.

BUT THAT'S NOT ALL: Guidance leans now to no recovery before yet another boundary plows through further re-enforcing the situation. Enough is enough already? But it comes again, and if that's not enough another yet still! Make it stop.  How cold will it be getting next week?

So far, no fears, just cold enough to be irritating but not so cold that  a state wide emergency freeze looks possible; north and west of I-4 might be a different story though.

This cold weather should be expected though. We are, after-all, just entering the "bleak midwinter' (or best of the best depending on how one likes it) time of year through to about the last few days of January. Time sure seems to creep in colder weather .

No comments: