"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

"Remnants of Isaac" to Revisit Florida By Friday/Saturday

"It is Best Not to Assume Too Much Responsibility in Areas We have no Control Over". Call it as one see's it...with a disclaimer.    
TODAY: Not much difference across Central from the past several days since the departure of Issac. It is possible though that as moisture increases slightly from South Florida and closes in from the North that we could see some thunder toward the Lake/Sea Breeze collision zone near Ft. Pierce and the surrounding area toward Lake Okeechobee north toward Vero, as well as north of I-4. Elsewhere, isolated too isolated to highlight. Otherwise, light winds. Overall, more activity across the state.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The mid level 'energy' (vorticity) from "Isaac's Ashes" very loosely speaking has already become well entwined with a synoptic scale trough and related surface front which is driving into the Southeast states after impacting the area from Arkansas, Missouri and other portions of the Mississippi River and Ohio River Valley basins, providing drought relief and some tornadoes. This energy is now being driven toward the southeast, so one could say at least in portion that "Isaac" is back to re-visit having gone full circle. In a larger sense, this is similar to what Ivan did several years ago as it went full loop out into the Atlantic and re-entried toward South Florida nearly 10 days after making its initial passage. 
"General" example of path of Ivan and Isaac and very general
forecast depiction in 'black'

In any case, increased moisture convergence along the trough with energy from the mid-levels ("Isaac" so to speak) will increase rain shower chances and some thunder mainly Thursday through Saturday, perhaps Sunday. Lack of a sea breeze  convergence except well east of the spine of the state should provide for a good day or two of storms until 'the remnants' move out into the Atlantic on the heels of by then what appears will be "Powerful Leslie" (hurricane) which is forecast to bring large swells and rip current threats up and down the U.S. East Coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Increased chance of showers and thunder with larger swells moving into the East coast. Rip Current/larger swells and lightning threat increases this weekend, beach goers over the weekend beware.

BEYOND: In the all in all, the thunderstorm wet season ended long ago before Isaac. Granted, some will assuredly argue the point, but tell us then "where are the storms?" 

The only reason we really are only going to have a chance now is from the frontal boundary and remnants of Isaac which is a far cry from the normal 'summer mechanisms' of sea breeze collisions in abundant moisturized and heat energized atmospheric environment one expects in a 'normal summer pattern', whatever that is. In the past 3 years, no two summers have been even close to similar although from an 'outside perspective' one could hardly say they can tell the difference.

The past two summers ..the wet season ended almost perfectly with the first day of Fall (September 21). This year looks far from that. That is not to say thunder is all but forgotten, but it will not be the norm any longer after this week. It might in fact, be quite sometime for any return of thunderstorms, as the boundary works eventually south (per the GFS) and onshore flow ensues, looking much more like an early Fall pattern, at least in the interim. That does not mean, however, the tropically related threat 'potential' does not continue to lurk well into October and early November.

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