"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Chance of Stronger Storms Mainly Eastern South Centra l- Parts of South Florida

"Saturday Morning" - Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: Last day of higher rain threat chances and storms for quite some time to come (at least until  later next week) for most areas.  

Morning KSC sounding reveals 500MB temperature has dropped another degree (locally) from yesterday while 700mb temperatures maybe another 1/2 -1 F degree. It is in the 'rather cold' range and sufficient for production of rather strong surface wind gusts in or near the result of  bigger/taller storm updrafts today.

There were many reports yesterday between the 38 - 55mph wind range with two isolated severe cat winds reported . In general, the winds reported were best-guess estimates which is about the best one can hope for in many cases, or were readings from gauges that might not always be right at the ground level.

Either way, surface "cold front' is now across a line from near St. Augustine on the east coast to near  Cross City on the west coast, at least as it appears per surface wind observations tough the real 'push' still lags back up in Central Georgia where models are showing the boundary to be. Satellite imagery indeed shows the 'active functional part' of the front where convergence is still going on along it to be across or near Southern Georgia despite the northerly surface wind observations across far North Florida which might be more of a reflection of an outflow boundary from a line of severe storms that was approaching that area near sunset last night.  

Appears the latest HRRR run has over - estimated what is now going on across South Central which is pretty much nothing other than a patch of light rain so will discard that for early day activities. On the other hand, most of what could occur today will depend on where the surface boundary is actually located and not sure model guidance has a respectable handle on it. Best instability should be found today however South of I-10 and especially from near I-4 or from Daytona Beach to Brooksville and south to start the day . Upper level energy again in place today as a trigger.

The next consideration is whether a sea breeze will be able to form today. Surface pressure gradient does not appear quite as strong today but winds just above remain too strong to permit it to occur. Given the KSC sounding would think it would be possible for a very shallow boundary to form and perhaps work just to the coast but make no inland penetration at all if so.

Following HRRR trends, The RAP..and 4KM projections..and given the location of what appears might be the true surface boundary and where day time heating might have it's greatest chance to have the most effect, suspect that based on southern movement of the boundary into mid-afternoon to near Dead Central Florida by around 2-3PM if not earlier, the strongest storms might occur South Central and parts of South Florida as far south as even St Lucie County region later in the day or even Martin.

Storm motion will be from the WNW for the most part outside of boundary propagation and interactions and also be a bit slower in forward speed than yesterday. Rainfall totals then might be a bit larger today in those locations that per chance happen to be under a real big rain producer that is moving slowly.

As usual, being it's a weekend, beach goers will need to be extra attentive to the northern to western skies today. While on the beach itself it is often impossible to hear thunder at all until a storm is already so close that one has been subject to a lightning strike without even being aware of it unless it has been actually observed from a distance.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain showers with stronger ENE -NE winds . Though the front will likely clear all but maybe the Florida Keys before washing out by mid-day..moisture seems to remain sufficient enough for spotty polka dot like showers to stream by  accompanied by surface winds gusting to over 20 mph. Not such a great boating day but great for wind or para-surfing.

BEYOND ? : Mainly dry Monday through Wednesday at least. Model guidance diverges between model runs and model types with varying solutions on a run to run basis. This was anticipated per the MLB Forecast Discussion and in deed is what is occurring. The overall scheme of things appears to be a wet period coming up toward the end of next week, but the GFS is flailing it's arms up in surrender and thus far is deeming utterly useless even when compared with other model guidance. Tis the 'wet season'...and would hate to see it go to waste. Could we be in for a prolonged dry spell even in Late June? Shudder the thought !

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