"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 15, 2013

Westside Thunders - Eastside Showers Through Thursday

MONDAY Morning Visible Satellite Imagery and
areas mostly likely for Sprinks, Showers, and Thunder
TODAY: Deep layer easterly flow up through 20,000 feet this morning is advecting showers toward the east coast of Florida. So far, most are decaying off as they come near shore and expecting that will be the case through early afternoon although some sprinkles and a few showers could reach the coast before the sea breeze sets up. Subsidence beyond (behind) the sea breeze could cause them further to die off that what is already present, but we'll see. Otherwise, the better location for showers and thunder will be West Central spine of the state to the west coast and into the Panhandle region.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: One , if not two TUTT like features are well to the east of the state on the approach but it appears they will mainly dampen out, but there is no shortage of sufficient moisture to fuel morning coastal showers almost anywhere along the east coast, with afternoon thunder in various locations from West of Orlando (for instance  toward Lake County and south near Rte 27 and west) toward SW Florida.

Meanwhile, an inverted mid-level trough is expected to form toward Cuba in the coming days which is then expected to lift north and west. That will be the harbinger of another pattern change in the weather overnight Thursday night into Friday for quite some time to come (perhaps up to 6 days). See images below.

FRIDAY Through WEEKEND: Steering becomes SW but low level circulations will allow the sea breezes to form as well with the surface ridge axis across Central to South Central Florida. Cold air aloft could allow for some Strong Storms. There also appears will be a 'particular dry slot' looming across either North Florida or North Central somewhere which could remain nearly rain free during this time frame. The preferred area for Storms at this point appears will be South Florida northward toward the Beach Line area and around the Lake Okeechobee area as well as over the I 10 corridor and vicinity.

BEYOND: A cold front is forecast to penetrate as far south as the I-10 although that might be overdone  Would more than likely foresee it making it as far South as Central or South Georgia as a wind shift line heading toward mid week next week. Otherwise, it's looking like a very typical summer like pattern. The GFS is showing restricted rainfalls, yet moisture levels are not all that low, so suspect the model is not accounting for sea breeze convergence and Lake Breeze boundary interactions which act to 'condense' moisture amply to provide for isolated thunderstorms. Upper level temperatures to gradually warm next week,  with the net effect that storm strength could wane a bit but with lightning being an ever present hazard regardless. 

This Forecast for Tuesday evening shows where the inverted MID LEVEL trough ofr from about 5000- 10,000 feet or so is expected to develop. We can see the wind barbs as well pointing from east to west which will cause the chance of east coast early day and overnight showers and west coast storms

FRIDAY Morning (in red) we See that Trough has lifted North and West . Note the wind barbs are now pointing from the SW. That is the storm steering direction.

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