"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 23, 2015

Becoming Cloudier But Warm, Showers Possible Late (Central) / Storms North

"Fall Streak" On Thursday Morning over Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Wind veering to SSE-South during the day and a bit breezier than the past few days. Cold front and associated rains are readily visible on radar over the Panhandle in the pre-dawn hours with the lightning mainly remaining over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Suspect this will remain to be the case until mid-morning where storms might ease   to inland near Tallahassee east toward JAX and south to Gainesville with time.

Further south into Central/South, remaining mostly dry with increasing clouds with highs through the 70Fs range contingent upon cloud cover. Chance of showers as far south as a Melbourne to South Tampa Bay line heading toward early evening near and after dark with the better chance before dark closer to the west coast north of the Brandon area. 

NOTE: This post is running on the conservative side as what could otherwise be   worded toward the  'favoring storms' convention. For now, not seeing it. Guidance over the past days since the previous post has been fairly consistent to imply 'no storms' today ; but perhaps on Saturday for Central and South except maybe along or North of the I-4.

Conservative Approach On Storm Coverage, The Orange is to show the Low End Chance of Thunder with Green Implying better the chance of showers will low rainfall accumulation (quick in passing)

SATURDAY: Cold front advancing south and east from I-4 by dawn to be across "Dead Central" between 9AM - noon time. Chance of showers with possible thunder to accompany the boundary in the presence of strong wind speed shear but very weak instability and directional shear. As a result, though thunder might accompany the activity, wind could still be a bit of an issue during and after boundary passage. Wouldn't be surprised to see Small Lake Advisories (etc..) and Small Craft Advisories hoisted for winds gusting to 30-35+mph as a result. Highs holding steady to dropping slowly during day light hours in the mid-upper 60Fs (warmer south) and falling slowly toward dark. Wind also quickly subsides after dark as the front by then will have cleared the state.

SUNDAY:Much cooler all day with lows ranging from low-upper 40Fs depending on how far north and inland one is located with a high in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs but very pleasant otherwise. Only 50Fs near and north of I4.

BEYOND: Another low pressure area much further north to cross the east central U.S. One if not two more fronts will rotate around that low as it moves east and north in coming days, bringing in another shot of colder air   toward Tuesday or Wednesday and perhaps another one after that similar to the one on Sunday. In between those reinforcing cool air intrusions we might see a warmer day in the lower 70Fs but mostly we'll be seeing westerly component winds and dryer air with no rain for quite a while.

"Fall Streak" and "Cloud Punch" (bottom right)

GREAT DREAM BEYOND: First few days of February might see something like a repeat performance in regard to the rain chances set up which will mean to watch for the severe weather potential once again, but as alluded to in the previous post, too far in time for anything but itching eyes wanting to see something that might never manifest.  


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