"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Will Late Morning Activity Yield To Early Evening Results?

(Image: Light thundershower today at 11am as seen from a distance to the WNW in Lake County)

SYNOPSIS: It's beginning to get progressively difficult to ascertain just exactly where the frontal boundary across the southeast states landmass even exists per latest surface observations across that region. What portion remains appears to have gone stationary and lays somewhere across S. Carolina...but the main player as far as large scale atmospheric circulations is concerned appears to be the location of the dominating high pressure axis' at various levels of the atmosphere all of which are either directly over or south of extreme S. Florida. As such most if not all of peninsular Florida is experiencing a general west to east flow along the northern periphary of the anticyclonic circulation.
TODAY: Somewhat discouraging to watch the KSC sounding data to progressively decrease PWAT values since last night despite the fact that water vapor imagery would indicate from first appearances that it would have increased. Expecting a somewhat non-typical for July pattern for today through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

As can seen by the included photograph there is some activity already to the WNW from as close as far Western Seminole county continuing NWN-NW toward Ocala and other locales yet further west well into the Gulf. The activity at this time seems to be lined up along a boundary of sorts which is progressively pushing south...especially over the Gulf waters.

Much like yesterday I'm once again expecting a later than normal onset of the sea breeze from Cape Canaveral and south . Further north it's possible the sea breeze will not kick in at all. This was the case yesterday and it appears such will it be so today as well. As a result, the temperature in Canaveral at 11am is right near 90F already without the sea breeze's cooling affects.

The rain showers further west and north actually began prior to sunrise and areal coverage has expanded ever since the initial first little shower initiated. Despite the presence of this expanding area as it approaches East Central Florida it appears that it will erode (disappear) the closer to the coast it gets due to the low PWAT values over the area. So that's it for the period heading into the late afternoon hours.

Later in the day, expect that as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with heating of the day and lake boundaries begin to interact that more storms will initiate primarily along a line from Daytona Beach to just north of Tampa which will be easily visible from Brevard. But the sun will shine throughout the day until very late in the afternoon.

EARLY EVENING: Here's where it gets interesting, but everything is contingent upon whether or not higher PWAT will sink into the immediate area by sunset. Despite how close these storms will be there will be a fine line between where it can eventually rain or not. Indications are that activity will exist in the early evening near or south of Daytona which will work along the by then developed sea breeze near the Cape and progress south into Brevard east of I-95 near sunset which could last for an hour or two after that time. The southern extent of just how far south this activity will last is being portrayed by a range of models (as of the last I looked) to be between Cape Canaveral to Melbourne Beach. Further south activity looks unlikely until one gets way down there toward West Palm Beach.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Clumping these two days together for now because over the very broad scheme of things little will change as far as the placement of the ridge axis' and PWAT values could change significantly as moisture will be available in only unforecastable 'puddles' splattered about here and there. But the general consensus is that there will greater available moisture over Central Florida both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. With nothing really occurring to offset thunderstorm development there's no real reason why storms once again wouldn't be possible.

WEDNESDAY: Transition to a different pattern of prevailing deep ESE-SE flow at all levels particularly by Friday with more to come on just exactly how that will affect this area as the time approaches. Was going to provide a "heads up" or "this might be possible" discussion for that time frame but this has already gotten too long winded. Leave that for another day and page to turn in the continuing saga.

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