"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Chance of Strong Storms , Near and South of I-4

Thunderstorm Slides Moving by Just to the North of Cape Canaveral Tuesday Afternoon
TODAY: Another day of 'possible strong to severe storms' but with close to nary a severe report at hand. Again, the risk is 'conditional' upon a variety of situational circumstances that will either 'make it or not to happen'.

 Temperatures aloft are not all that cold though there is enough shear aloft when coupled with respectable instability (which has been lacking) that could potentially amount to strong winds especially in and near  very heavy rainfall in a brief amount of time with PWAT (precipitable water) air  still looming at or over 2.00".  

Storm activity over far SW Florida and off the coast over night has spread a canopy of dense cirrus/cirrostratus cloud across the southern half of the state northeastward. The question at hand has been , as a result: "Will that canopy persist?",  because if so we could write off any chances of 'strong' storms today, let alone much thunder at all. 

Heavy Rain Ekes by Just to the North of Downtown Cape Canaveral,
to just north of Jetty Park

As of 8AM it appears the last of the stronger activity way Down South has ended and first glimpses at satellite imagery (in the visible spectrum) shows clearing across western portions of Florida working eastward as the high clouds press on out to the north and east of the state. Thus, if this continues to be the case with clearing all the way to the east coast, then destabilization of the atmosphere could lead to rapid development of shower activity once convective temperatures are reached. 

The early morning sounding at the Cape shows that temperature to be 87F degrees which might be hard to attain. On the other hand, that value might go down during mid morning. 

To consider though against strong storms is the 700mb temperature coming in at  a warm 10C  and 500MB barely much colder than a -6C.

 Winds aloft at those levels in the  mid 30kts to lower 40kts range. All combined with heavy down pours , would 'at least think' that non-severe but stronger winds are still possible in the 42-55 mph range at the surface in the strongest of storms, so will be interesting to see how things transpire today, to play it on the 'conservative side' as of early this morning until more information can come in.

For now, have outlined (in yellow) where it would seem the better likelihood of 'strong storms' will be today going into early evening (Southern most parts of the state by then), but to note that SPC (The Storm Prediction Center) has the majority of the state in what would be considered a 'marginal risk' for 'severe category winds' , even a weak 'tornado' most anywhere.  

Overall, boundary interactions of unpredictable nature as showers/storms evolve will end up being instrumental in determining what does or does not evolve where and when as storms move off briskly to the east and north east this afternoon.

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary still across North Florida , but strongest winds aloft will have moved out to the north and east of the state by Thursday afternoon.  Perhaps we can see some more sun this day and destabilization but weaker winds aloft. 

Steering will still be from the SW rather strong and not expecting an east coast sea breeze this day. The frontal boundary is still forecast to be across Central Florida during peak heating hours somewhere near Titusville on the east coast by around 2PM making only slow southward progress. 

Exactly how far south the surface boundary makes it appears might be toward Lake Okeechobee well after dark; even so, if the boundary makes it will south (after dark)r,  just above the deck at 2000 ft the same boundary remains tilted back to Central Direct bisecting Brevard County (for example). 

Thinking for blog purposes is that it is this boundary that will be the focal point for the better likelihood of showers and thunder toward the east side of the state on Thursday and thus at this point am painting Southern Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties as 'prime targets' for afternoon atmospheric festivities. We'll just have to see on that though

FRIDAY:  Regardless of how far south the surface boundary makes it (as noted above), even to Okeechobee, consensus is that over night toward sunrise it will retreat back north again so to be located near the Titusville (east coast) toward North side Tampa Bay (West Coast) during peak heating hours. Deepest moisture is along and south of that boundary. It appears the east coast sea breeze might be able to form for Brevard if this is the case where pressure gradient is weakest yet steering remains from the South west. 

This day (and Saturday) might end up being even bigger rain makers for Brevard/Indian River/Southern Volusia  and St. Lucie county BEACHES than have these recent days .  

SATURDAY: Again, East Central appears to be the focus for best rain chances but also more toward the interior. Sea breezes at work with slower steering toward the east coast but the retreating boundary, sort of a   "pseudo- warm  dew point front" (the boundary being defined by higher dew-points and wind shift line rather than warmer ambient air temperature) , retreats well to Georgia placing all of the state into the 'thunder chances ' once again. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model has been hitting on East Central for nearly 6 runs now over 2 days, if that means anything, meaning 'chance of storms on the beach Saturday afternoon' for East Central Counties  mainly south of Daytona and north of Ft Pierce.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Much drier pattern at hand. By Sunday morning or noon time light southeast flow at the surface and up to the mid level begins and overall air mass is much 'drier' at least relative to what we've been under the influence of the past few days. Any activity will be well inland with much less overall coverage.

Appears that either late Tuesday or Wednesday deeper moisture might make a return to the East Coast from Volusia and south resulting in even morning or nocturnal shower chances so worth watching for that.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Too far out to say with accuracy. GFS implies steering currents become more westerly Wednesday afternoon as surface winds become more southerly and thunder and overall rain chances increase state wide, possibly even for the immediate east coast.

EVEN BEYOND THAT: The GFS and to some degree the CSF-v2 (climatology model) are showing something tropical emerging up from the SW Gulf of Mexico. 

The GFS has been showing a Tropical Storm coming over Florida or more so the Eastern Gulf, while the CSF-v2 shows something much weaker into the Central Gulf. Either way, it's far too early to wager any bets that far out in time, though the GFS has been quite consistent at least on 'something forming' and affecting Florida one way or the other. Time will tell  but not really worth the mention until it's still so less than 10 days out. Chances are then, if it continues to show this, we'll be hearing about it 'NEXT" weekend all the more via media outlets.

No comments: