"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Chance of Shower/Iso-Thunder Mid-Afternoon through Dark / Strong - Near Severe Possible Friday

"Sunrise - Cape Canaveral Thursday April 14"
TODAY: After some morning low clouds, sufficient heating and ample instability, though not plentiful, combined with moisture and sea breezes should be sufficient with cold air aloft to allow some convective shower activity and even some thunder (more likely later in the day) to occur mainly near and south of 

Given the morning KSC Sounding which shows steering easily from the WNW-NW at 15kt at 850mb all the way up to near 50kts at 20,000 ft and cold air as well, a bit surprised models are not showing for stronger storms but surface based instability looks rather weak today (per models at least).

 Therefore, wouldn't be all too surprised if even a stronger storm could get going under the right conditions. The Convective Temperature was only 83F with a Cap strength of 1 ...but with only 1.46" of precipitable water availability, activity will remain a bit isolated. Again a strong storm is possible today especially near to east of I-95 if the west coast sea breeze manages to work east far enough late in the day to interact with the east coast sea breeze in an area that remains 'unpolluted' from earlier in the day activities., though all in all at this time of day (10:45AM) nothing beyond showers and maybe thunder is foreseen for the time being).

FRIDAY: Similar conditions with some bonus points. Even colder air aloft on Friday and more surface based instability. Given that situation might look for strong to potentially isolated severe storms due to 1" or larger hail and wind  gusts nearing 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has a large area similar to the map above for tomorrow traced out in a "Marginal Risk"...(with contingencies for a possible 'upgrade' to 'Slight Risk"); but until tomorrow comes, best ride with the SPC call.  

SATURDAY: Another chance of rain and cloud cover this day , but not sure the thunder wording needs to be emphasized just yet. Though then again of South Florida might need to watched but first to get through Friday.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: Thunder and shower chances quickly dwindle but re-emerge toward next weekend. No big changes in temperature are foreseen. A period of more brisk northeast wind though could come about but other than some breezier conditions nothing beyond seasonal norms looks to be in the cards.

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