"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Widespread Showers -Storms Possible Today

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday , September 7th
TODAY: Low pressure circulation which two - three days ago was located southwest of Port Charlotte continues to lift north to the Panhandle as shown in the next image. Meanwhile, upper level temperatures are warming a bit with 500mb and 700mb temps forecast to be around -5.5 to -6C/ and 10C respectively. These temperatures are alone not conducive for stronger storms apart from upper level energy and/or stronger low level deep convergence along defined boundaries which will be a bit hard to come by today.  

The best convergence should occur along the east coast north of West Palm Beach on the east side aided by low level helicities along the 'somewhat side shore component' to the east coast sea breeze being affected by the synoptic scale flow as a result of the broader cyclonic circulation over the state as evidenced in the small scale by the low pressure area shown

Otherwise, showers and or thunder could conceivably occur almost anywhere, but the east side will probably hold off until later in the day as activity moves from southwest to northeast in general from the west side and sets off foreword moving outflows ahead of the west coast sea-breeze in tango with the synoptic scale SW Flow from 2000ft up through the 18,000 ft large scale flow in a very moist environment.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The South west flow will begin to relax a bit, but there is also a chance some drier air will be slotted in with it across a portion of the state. As a result, at this point it appear activity will not be nearly as prevalent on one or both days. A cold front is forecast to reach near the area around the Florida/Georgia border before being absorbed ..thus not directly impacting the majority if not all of the state, but more directly the area north of I-4 where storm coverage might be greatest and/or strength.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The GFS implies colder air aloft and better chance of sea breeze convergence toward the East half of the state with activity to exit the east coast.  The NAM is not showing the colder air aloft though. This is apart from any other unforeseen circumstances (variables yet foreseen) - that is the general picture being painted at this point this morning. If there is colder air, storms could become strong to pulse severe at time toward the end of this week.

BEYOND: Continued chances of showers/thunderstorms extends will into next week - though the amount of coverage and locations is well too far beyond to bother attempting to forecast such.  Temperatures are expected to remain warm though with no sign of cooler air as of yet to overcome the state.

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