TODAY: Brief post due to time constraints. Quick peaks of the last few successive hours though shows that a very rich and moist dew-point air mass in the low levels has crept north toward I-4 as of 11AM. This is easily discernible just by stepping outside.
|United Launch Alliance/Boeing Delta IV this morning|
High Instability already exists with Convective Available Potential Energy closing in on 4000 units which is high. ...even just offshore the east coast it is advecting (migrating) inland under slightly cooler temperatures aloft from the past several days.
With that said, there is the potential for good coverage of showers and thunderstorms today just west of I-95 mainly South of I4. The ridge axis at steering level is almost directly across Central Florida stretching from east to west from High pressure in the Atlantic centered well to the state's east. this is noted on the morning KSC sounding and on the latest short fused guidance quite nicely.
Steering in this regard is very slow, so would expect that apparent storm motion will be due to propagation of outflow boundaries into unadulterated warm and moist unstable air west of the east coast sea breeze, potentially toward the WSW-SW direction. Some stronger storms are possible with the greatest hazard being excessive lightning strikes and a brief period of near severe wind gusts in and near storms.
Going further into the week the GFS of several days ago seems to be re-emerging as a viable option for continuation of rain and storm chances into the weekend, with the Monday to Tuesday time frame being the point of departure, although that could change given the time frame in the future from now.