TODAY: ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---- LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ARTHUR is expected to remain just to the east of Florida, making a near pass at The Cape area overnight into early tomorrow morning. All official information is being relayed by the NWS out of Melbourne , Florida and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It appears that with the Tropical Storm Watch in affect for the coastal waters though, that the main impacts as noted yesterday, will be for marine interests. Latest radar is showing some activity well offshore rotating around the center but remaining off shore as of 12:30pm. The storm appears to be moving slowly toward the WNW-W at around 2 mph and little change in forward speed or track is anticipated in the next 12 hours. This 'could' conceivably bring some activity on shore mainly to Brevard/Indian River Counties late today, though most model guidance shows that direct rains will mainly remain offshore (until Wednesday).
WEDNESDAY: The bigger rainfall impacts could (might) occur after sunrise from late morning through afternoon as shown above in the green in association with a trailing low level trough extending from Arthur. The storm is definitely bottom heavy and has been for over 24 hours, with the crux of activity as can be seen above, south of the Center. The worst case scenario in the rainfall dept. is shown by GFS to be for parts of East Central Florida (Brevard) tomorrow with the Center in that particular model directly east of Cape Canaveral at sunrise by approximately 50-75 miles. That is only one model though, Regardless, the stronger winds are to be east and northeast of the Center. Must say though, as of 12:30pm, radar animation appears to show the storm to be moving almost directly west at the current time.
BEYOND: A return to more 'normal' summer like weather with thunderstorms possible toward the Interior and East Coast for a few days as the Atlantic Ridge axis builds in across South Central to Central Florida.