"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 3, 2016

Active Lightning Storms Late Today near Highway 27 (Watching Monday/Tuesday)

Sunrise - Cape Canaveral This Morning
TODAY: Instability and ample moisture combined with sea breeze convergence shown by most all guidance to occur just west of the Spine of The State to occur between 5:30pm toward 7pm could result in some active lightning storms today in that location up and down the state with a focus to just east of the Tampa area b into parts of Polk County (mainly)  and Western Lake County though many areas when combined with resultant out flow boundaries could also see activity northward toward I-10 west of JAX. Otherwise, warm and muggy inland with highs in the lower 90s and more toward the mid-upper 80Fs near the east coast .

SATURDAY: Again, sea breeze convergence related thunderstorm activity this time shifting more toward the center of the state as ridge over Florida begins to shift east. Focus by guidance as of this morning is Central Florida but more isolated in nature than it will be later today (Friday).

SUNDAY: Big changes in store as tropical moisture surge with surface low   to mid level pressures lift north and east from the Yucatan. Sunday 'similar' to Saturday but with a focus more toward the east coast as steering will be strong from SW toward the NE with some perhaps a bit strong Central Volusia up through Jax area.

BEYOND: Monday/Tuesday - though various longer range guidance  varies, the GFS implies low pressure to lift north of the Yucatan and toward the east central Gulf of Mexico   to just SW of the Tampa area with stronger veering winds up through the mid levels across much of the state beginning late Monday afternoon and into early Tuesday. 

Though it's too early to say with much certainty combined with that there is not enough agreement between other forms of guidance, if the GFS were to verify in it's over-all solution a tornado threat could emerge for much of the state mainly from south of line running from Cedar Key to Ormond Beach. Worth watching. 

This system does not appear would be a true tropical wind threat due to stronger winds aloft which ,though more favorable for mini-supercell like storm structures, would not be a conducive for tropical storm development.

Otherwise, should this system cross the state making for a 'window of opportunity for perhaps some larger rainfall totals (so far near I-4 into much of Central and South Central)...once it were to move east of the state a several day 'dry out' period will be in order.

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