|Green is Showers, Orange is Thunder|
TODAY: So far today is shaping up like yesterday with some minor differences. Temps aloft are pretty warm...sea breezes barely getting started but showers forming readily. The strongest activity with some lightning should be after 3pm to 8pm..over Lake/Polk Counties and perhaps near the attractions...up through western Volusia. The trend has been every day for more showers vs. thunder, so will ride with that one for now..although once boundary interactions begin is when we will know what potential lies within the beast's true nature later in the afternoon. Likely, the only thunder will be with the sea breeze convergence which looks to be strongest over West Central Polk County toward Southern Lake County. Otherwise, a disturbance aloft might set off a stronger storms west of the St. Johns river in Volusia to west of St. Augustine...and mergers in Polk County looks to be a 'hot spot' as well...at the risk of sounding toplofty...I'm not looking to see strong thunderstorms today...But again, we won't really know until late..and a lot could change during the course of the day.
Oddly, the impression I get is that inland activity will send outflows back toward the coasts..so that once again the I95 to US1 regions could get a second shot at storms in the early evening as the sun begins to set almost anywhere south of I-4...including all of South Florida. However, coverage of said activity should represent a respectable rug of coverage when all is complete from mid afternoon through sunset ...
SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY: Look very similar in nature..with less thunder..and more showers as warm air aloft starts to work in more and more . That warm air could be an omen though...for the tropics.
WEDNESDAY: Drier most everywhere..and this is where the tropics comes in to play..as whatever goes on down there comes into play
THURSDAY BEYOND: Very good argument for something of tropical nature to affect much of the state in some form or another..either much wetter or much drier depending upon what track 'something tropical this way comes"...The main player models are tracking (implying) a low end hurricane up to strong Cat 1 to cross the state..making an entrance on either the SW or SE Coast.
I looked into some history..the tracks are close to Cleo and David..with a bit of Charlie thrown in. These were La Nina Years...or going on La Nina (not sure about Cleo)...and 50 years ago..close to the Cleo time frame...there was one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Sound familiar?! Here's are the tracks of David and Cleo...and what the GFS (below) and European model portray as of early this morning at 2AM.
With that said, this leaves out how strong it would be. The Euro implies strengthening over the Everglades...good call on its part if that course of action takes place. These both look like Cat 1 hurricanes..with winds of 75G95 (Possibly) all on the east side of the storm...
AGAIN..this is NOT to say this is what will happen. However, all but 2 of the statistical models indicate that in the past...history dictates this course of action...all other things withstanding. If the system comes off the Great Antilles greatly weakened..it as 2 of the models of statistical nature show...the storm will never impact Florida at all.