"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, October 8, 2012

Showers, Thunder through Early-Mid Evening (Central) Possible Today/Tonight

Frontal Boundary late today to be located as shown in the following image, but currently located diagonally across the Panhandle where morning lows were in the 50Fs behind it (that cool air will never reach Central Florida). Difficulties in forecast today due to cloud coverage over many areas that is to persist
TODAY: Short post today. Cluster of Storms is progressing toward the ENE (shown above), this coupled with surface winds becoming more southerly after noontime, and increasing SW midlevel steering across mainly Central and North Florida with instability and cool air aloft despite the cloud coverage could instigate showers and thunder (South Florida is already experiencing quite a bit)...almost anytime, esp. after early afternoon.

The frontal boundary across North Florida could make it toward Dead Central around midnight, and slight low level convergence along that boundary could shift increasing rain chances toward the SE from NW Florida later today, but timing is a tricky factor considering the ongoing scenario currently in place.

There was some large rainfall totals over 4" yesterday in Okeechobee County, so localized flash 'flooding' is possible there, although the main core of rain is not 'expected' to reach that zone. Guidance 'seems' to be a somewhat of   agreement that it will be the north 1/2 of the state that will receive the main flux of rainfall, but no area can be counted out once localized boundaries come into play and considering it is already raining over portions of South Florida early on today.

Image for mid evening shows front's location and a weak low pressure circulation over the Bahamas. High pressure building eastward indicated by zig zag blue line will press eastward toward Florida resulting in a wind shift to the north by Tuesday and drying out mainly north of the 528 Causeway, but yet more drying to commence Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday through Friday or early Saturday. 
BEYOND TODAY: Shower chances early on along the east coast of Central tomorrow morning but this activity will press off toward SW Florida during the day.  After that time, Wednesday through Friday look mostly dry, although another boundary will skirt by off shore with little to no impact  Morning lows along the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs south of the Cape and afternoon highs in the 80Fs and lows 90Fs along the SW side of the state.

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