|STRONG/SEVERE thunderstorms possible over part of the Panhandle/North Florida. Chaotic pulse strong/severe storms possible South Florida. Most of Dead Central Inactive until early evening.|
SYNOPSIS: Not really a whole lot different today for Central and South Florida from yesterday. High pressure is centered over the Gulf generally as noted in this image. A weak mid-level ridge axis containing relatively warmer upper level air stretches across Central Florida this morning and will persist through the majority of the day. Along this axis also exists the driest moisture throughout the atmosphere. Therefore, little to no shower activity worth noting is expected across the Beachline zone until at least after 6pm.
North Florida: is closest to a diffuse surface boundary where moisture is pooling. There may be even more moisture gathering along that boundary than over South Florida. The atmosphere over North Florida is forecast to become moderately to very unstable by early afternoon under very hot temperatures in the mid-upper 90Fs. Storms that can go up roughly along I-10 from JAX toward Tallahassee, potentially initiating along the West Coast/Gulf Coast sea-breezes will strengthen from west to east, possibly reaching as far south as Northern or Central Volusia Counties by later in the afternoon. Other storms could roll into the Western Panhandle region out of SE Alabama and.or form along the Gulf Coast Sea-breeze.
South Florida: Like yesterday, mid-level winds are weak once again, but there already appears to be a weak cyclonic circulation centered west of Miami in western Dade/Broward Counties. South Florida will be in its own 'little world' today out of any synoptic scale bounds, yet the mesoscale environment in this area does look interesting from a meteorological perspective.
The convectively inclined air mass in this location, like yesterday, is almost already moderately unstable even at only mid-morning; only a bit more destabilization is likely. With near zero convective inhibition in place, I'd expect activity to develop (again like yesterday) early to mid-afternoon as West Coast/East Coast/and Lake Breezes begin to migrate toward each other.
Believe that these storms (under the assumptions that a few will forms) will create their own boundaries to propagate along since the overall steering currents remain relatively weak (other than the weaker showers); but with stronger upper level winds, these storms should be able to evacuate from their tops with collapsing on themselves as the propogate. This makes overall storm motion nearly impossible to negotiate; however, some storms should be able to reach the A1A-I-95 corridors in Dade/Broward/and Southern Palm Beach County (at least). Outflow boundaries could initiate storms further north with time in domino fashion toward Martin County, perhaps approaching Vero Beach very close to the coast late afternoon.
Central Florida: Here is where the least moist, most stable, and warmest air aloft resides. All factors totally non-condusive for thunderstorms or even rain-shower development. Therefore, my guess this morning is that Central Florida will see little in rain today until at least after 6pm AFTER peak heating. And it will be pretty hot today in this area with highs in many locations reaching the mid-90Fs inland (perhaps some reaching around 97F near Orlando and suburbia as well as inland of the Tampa region. East Coasters along US1 to A1A might be the only ones to feel a sea breeze in this area today by early afternoon. Perhaps sooner on the barrier islands. Any showers/storms to form in this area will have to rely on either
1) Moisture closing in from the north and south after 4-5pm as the afternoon heat cools and dew-points rise (dew point depressions lower); or
2) Showers/storms (more likely) roll out of the northern sector into the most favorable early evening atmosphere from mostly the spine of the state and east. There has been some indications that a particularly strong storm could form under this scenario from near Sanford toward the Mims area after 7pm which might brush the northern KSC area heading toward dark. Chances are, if this does occur it will be later than models indicate, so wouldn't be surprised to see that not unlike yesterday...any showers to reach or outright form east of Orlando will not do so until after 8pm.
TUESDAY: Not much change in previous thinking. Interestingly, the inverse pattern from today is being depicted, with the most unstable atmosphere to reside along the Beach-line area into Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties on the East Coast. There could be a strong storms near the coast on Tuesday by mid-afternoon to early evening somewhere within this area. Otherwise, showers could reside closer to the East Coast in South Florida once again.
WEDNESDAY: Early indications are portraying scattered thundershowers up and down the spine of the state on Wednesday, some quite strong with both immediate coasts laying low on the rain chances under chaotic mid-level winds.