"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 6, 2011

High Clouds Plague the Beachline Today, Rain/Thunder Chances N. Florida

Image indicates a low pressure trough at the jet stream level over the Gulf. This little devil is pulling moisture at the jet stream level northward from the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean and then spilling it eastward across Central Florida as can be seen above where the blue colors are shown. Based on animation of this image type, it appears these clouds will persist across the immediate Central Florida area through the day. The area shown in green across N. Florid is where it is most likely to receive rain (thunderstorms) today, potentially strong near the 'Gator' toward the 'Seminole' Territory. 

TODAY: Weak surface trough of low pressure with embedded surface bubble lows exists across the Gulf Coast early this Monday afternoon. When connecting the dots of lows....they make up a weak frontal boundary extending out into the Atlantic generally east of Jacksonville west toward SE Texas. This 'boundary' will work south after sunset.  Meanwhile, as can be seen above, high clouds are forming well aloft due to moisture being drawn from the Caribbean at the jet stream level, then rooster tailing eastward across the Central Peninsula. It is completely overcast directly under this moisture plume, of only high clouds. It is also a bit hazy west of the immediate east coast ahead of the east coast sea breeze of little/no consequence underneath warm air aloft.

Black lines depict low pressure pressure troughs. Not shown is the weak, bubble lows from off shore the  NE Florida Coast and west toward SE Texas; 'dot-connect' and they create a weak frontal trough (on paper). Best chance of showers, as shown in the previous image as well as above, is located over North Central Florida toward Tallahassee where the boundaries meet, and where instability is greatest due to moisture near these boundaries and less high cloud coverage to start with.

TUESDAY; The weak boundary and jet stream level winds could well adjust further south by Tuesday which would place more of the Southern Portion of the state under the high clouds. We'll have to just await our turn after sunrise tomorrow to see if this is what occurs.  Otherwise, temperatures running status quo morning, noon, and night with a more prevalent easterly flow across all of the state tomorrow as the surface boundary washes out. Best chance of thunderstorms will be near the west coast, although I'm not totally prepared to rule out some pre-dawn to mid-morning east coast showers over portions of Central Florida before the boundary slides to South Florida and washes out by mid-afternoon at the latest. Afternoon showers and some thunder area possible over South Florida tomorrow as well, mainly well west of I-95.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Already, big discrepancies between the two main player models (NAM and GFS) has emerged; although, I was totally not expecting to see what I'm seeing last I peeked. Believe the NAM, which is crying out for big rains and possibly 'twisting storms' by Thursday over portions of South and Central Florida has had too much "Energy-X" beverage this morning, and therefore will ride with the GFS which has been consistent. That given...continued easterly low and mid-level wind flow across the peninsula with increasing atmospheric moisture at all levels (not just the high  and low levels) moving into Thursday, with limited to zero rain chances. Per this guidance, the chances of rain increases though.

SATURDAY/BEYOND: Guidance based on the GFS has been bringing a remnant low from the Caribbean northward into the Easstern Gulf as a bit of a north/south aligned inverted trough going into the weekend which eventually merges with a continental cold frontal system from the NW later next week.  The merger of the two brings a generous moisture surge across the "Drought-Thirsty State". Initially, as soon as possibly late Thursday into  Friday over South Florida and eventually to more and more of the state with time. 

Now, whether this moisture will manifest as actual rain or simply totally overcast skies is yet to be determined; although all guidance I've seen is painting precipitation on the "paint by numbers' grid of blue, green, and yellow (in other words, more than enough rain to make puddles).  Additionally, under the assumption that if this is rain, will it be thunderstorms or just rain? Probably just rain. However, with the inverted trough associated with the Caribbean System washes out and the supposed frontal boundary eventually makes leeway toward the state, conditions would become more favorable for generic thunderstorms with time. Temperatures aloft are not forecast to be cold enough, nor are winds aloft forecast to be strong enough...for any severe weather.

IN FOLDING AND AS READS ON THE BLOG PAGE AT ALL TIMES: All statements/assumptions are of the authors own. Please consult the NWS or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for official local and tropical weather forecasts/outlooks. Given the unpredictability of the weather in coming days, large changes in the forecast over a 24 hour period in the next 2-6 days can be expected  both within these writings as well as over broadcast news channels across the state.

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