"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Chance of Severe Weather Continues Today/Tonight

Watching the Area mainly in between the red arrows, but anywhere really between the orange (if not further South) will need to be watched and carefully scrutinized as the situation develops (or doesn't) during the day today. See Note ***

TODAY: Not much change really from previous post. Low pressure system is taking shape south of the Louisiana coast and is forecast to lift NE ward during the next 24 hours and accelerate up the U.S. East Coast. For Florida, SE winds today to remain quite breezy trending more toward the SSE-S and eventually SSW-SW overnight tonight.  Upper level trough to the jet stream level approaches the Florida West Coast toward midnight which should abet in mid-level lift in the presence of increasing divergence through the upper levels,  and given the overnight areas of interest it appears will be most greatly affected,  this post focused mostly on mid-level dynamics since low level instability is weak during the overnight hours.

Otherwise, possible rainshowers and maybe a clap of thunder from mid afternoon toward late afternoon Central to north Central Florida during peak instability hours. 

(***NOTE: There is not expected too much if any instability north of I-4, though a word of caution not shown in this graphic, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining the panhandle/big bend to Northwest Florida more favorably for severe weather as of this early hour of the day which would likely occur much earlier than that over Central or South Florida, but there are a few uncertainties remaining. This post is not showing that area due to lack of instability during daylight hours as rain is already moving into that area before sunrise.)

TONIGHT: November 27th.:  Possibly two rounds of 'weather' but of what nature that weather will harvest remains an unknown. Will be watching for possibly a weak circulation forming near the Loop Current where the greatest instability will reside due to greater low level instability in the vicinity of the warmer Gulf Waters although models are not picking up on any such event to occur at this time. 

Per this image, best Upper Level Divergence will be approaching at and after 1AM coincident with the potential for a low level jet to form in the region that will be most unstable during daylight hours today but will have lost much of that instability after dark.

Most activity might remain in the mid-levels and not even be realized at ground level (if any does exist at all). The overall Severe Threat appears to be isolated at best from  small , fast moving storm cells.
Given the high amount of Bulk Shear and storm relative helicity indicators per the Mesoscale Analysis page looming over the Gulf waters and as this image shows above with the red/blue wind barb couplets to approach (although suspect they won't be as perpendicular to each other over night tonight)...if an overnight low level jet develops there could be rotating storms producing strong surface winds of severe strength with embedded   tornado or two which would move quite rapidly and be 'in and out' with little to no warning. So far, the most hazardous time frame appears to be from around 11pm toward the west side or a bit later through around 6AM to 7Am. Latest guidance has this storm system clearing the east coast a bit more rapidly than previous model runs.

WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING: Not much change in thinking from previous post. Coldest morning so far Thanksgiving morning with lows from the Canaveral area and south east of US 1 in the lower 50Fs to near 50F falling rapidly toward the Upper 30Fs to Lower 40Fs in the far NW Orlando proper area toward Clermont  Lake County and up the interior toward Ocala and north Florida. Warmest zone along and east of US1 and even warmer along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral South to Miami and through the Keys.

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