"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Chance or Measureable Rain on Wednesday, Warmer by Mid-Next Week

Changes ahead from a temperature and moisture perspective
TODAY: Although off and on clouds will be in the picture, the outlook for today looks predominantly dry with similar temperatures to recent days.
WEDNESDAY: Guidance up to this point indicates a pocket of moisture from the northern Bahamas will approach South Central and work up the east coast toward North Central interior during the day Wednesday along with minimal instability and very cold air aloft. This appears will or could result in increasing measurable rain chances, and who knows, maybe a distant rumble aloft. Otherwise, winds will be easterly and continue as such in days to follow with mild temperatures in the upper 60Fs to near 70F becoming more likely yet so by the weekend, and humid as well.
BEYOND: The next frontal boundary is well far off, but with it's approach, high pressure will be positioned to the east so as to bring a more Southeasterly component to the winds bring warm and moist air influx. By the weekend an inverted east coast trough is shown to be in place as another patch of moisture surges in. Convergence along this boundary will increase both cloud cover and shower chances. At this point, it appears they will be of the low topped variety, meaning mostly light sprinkles would be the rule not unlike recent days, only more of it, with chances of measureable rain also in the cards.  Although that moisture will eventually rotate out of the picture the overall outlook shows for more moisture in place than say, what we will have today and what has been in place in recent days. That means that rainfall or no rainfall, increasing humidity holding overnight low temperatures up with little variability during the day, 70Fs ruling the roost for the most part, especially along the coast from the Cape and south, with day time highs approaching the lower 80Fs into the interior and western portion of the state.
As the next true front finally makes its approach well into mid next week surface winds could become more SSW with temperatures increasing most everywhere before it skirts by and shifts us back to the pattern much like what we will see today.
Guidance has continuously been shifting the next frontal passage out further in time. What was first a true cold front to occur around the 12th, moved out to the 15th, and is now out to the 18th. I suspect that somewhere toward the third week of December after the 16th we might run into a stormy period for the Deep South, but whether Florida will fall into the scene on a severe weather outbreak so far is a bit uncertain. 

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