"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 1, 2016

Rockin' to the 80Fs (Tuesday) - Chance of Rain/Thunder Late Wednesday/Thursday

Sunrise Sunday Morning Upon Cocoa Beach
TODAY: High cloud canopy clearing from north to south such that by the time one reads this post Central Florida and all of The North will have already cleared. 

There remains a mid-level pocket of moisture (and clouds) that guidance implies will be on the way out heading toward the hours of 1-3PM. Low level moisture will increase a bit though, but overall we'll see more sun today it so appears with highs in the mid 70Fs for the most part.

TUESDAY: Easterly to eventually southeast wind. This day appears to be the Finest of all in regard to warmth and least cloud cover with highs reaching the lower to maybe a mid 80F well west of I-95 with the immediate coasts remaining in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how far north one traverses and how close to the ocean one is. Ocean temperatures are only in the mid 60Fs off Canaveral and even cold further north but warmer toward Ft Pierce and south due to the proximity of the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

WEDNESDAY: High clouds again surge northward in advance of an approaching cold front. The attendant low pressure center from this front will be forming near the Four Corners region today and tomorrow and move east then NE toward Nova Scotia. As such, not much torque to slice the front right through but rather it will be a bit of a dragged out process. 

By the time the front reaches Dead Central from a line near Tampa to Melbourne, FL later on Thursday  the low pressure is nearly in the North Atlantic off Nova Scotia (as opposed to prior frontal passages with the low (for instance) moving off the Carolinas).  

Best chance of rain and maybe some thunder will be near and north of I-4, though it is possible that as far south as a line from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay region and north could get into some late day rain showers as well.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers and maybe some thunder (maybe even an isolated strong storm but not going into that on this post though temperatures aloft and sufficient bulk shear imply some winds gusting toward 50 mph is always possible) will be along and south of a line from near Ormond Beach to Cedar Key...and north of a line  running from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota (see graphic below). Best chance of  thunder appears to be about 40 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.

FRIDAY: Front to rapidly clear with the colder air to follow. This front is going through a bit like in November fashion earlier in the season meaning a quick turnaround to Northeast winds post frontal passage with quickly modifying air mass. Highs on Friday in the 60Fs and breezy...likely cloud cover will accompany the wind as well...especially by Saturday when some showers might be added to the mix.

BEYOND: Next chance of a Bout of Severe Weather begins to Emerge as Soon as Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico. 

After the frontal passage on Thursday a region of 500mb energy down through the lower levels will already be crossing North Mexico moving east. Vorticity from the front remains strung out across Central Florida and back nearly the whole way to connect with the next system approaching in the mid-upper levels from the West. 

As that Disturbance rides along the boundary the GFS hedges on kicking up at least one surface low in the Central Gulf to move east northeast to northeast going into the Sunday/Monday time frame.

This might well change though as it is still a good week out. Guidance has been bouncing around on this 'notion' for days now already.

 One option has been for a very weak low to spin up east of the state which would mean nothing to Florida..but if it spins up well to the west of the state and moves east..different story.  Latest implies a "Marginal - Slight Severe Risk" of Severe Weather Late Sunday/Mid-Day Monday Time Frame for North and Central Florida . The usual caveat already being also suggested (Low CAPE / high shear environment). 

We'll be staying tuned to this potentially evolving situation though - for now, just a heads up as again -- at this point in time it's nothing more than an itchin'.

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