"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Florida Might Be Able To Break The Drought by Month's End !

An Example of Possible Precipitation Totals Over a 4 Day Period Ending Next Friday Night (April 15th)
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: Florida will be under affect of a high pressure ridge at times centered directly over the state today through Monday. During this time some strong/severe weather producing storm systems will ride up and over the high pressure north of Florida, which will feed  moisture and heat into much of the Eastern United States as far north as Minnesota.  The weather will be dictated over the state by warmer afternoons working into the weekend (actually before that time in some locations) which will expand in coverage into much of the Eastern States as far north as Minnesota. Very cool morning low temperatures will be a thing of the past for all but NW Florida (at times). 

This COULD be significant further in time as this latent heat will eventually accumulate as energy to be transported...somewhere.  As we can see in the image above that energy could translate as storms and rain with time as upper level parameters become more favorable for its release (colder air aloft). First will likely be a squall line to develop into the weekend and/or two separate regions of severe weather north of the state.  This image is one example of what could be the net affect for the period of April 11-15 over the Southeast United States as these systems erode the ridge, finally affecting the state. 

Per this same model, this is only but half the story!

Temperatures will be coolest near the coasts with highs 80F- low 80Fs where inland and SW Florida as well as portions of the state's spine could break the big  9-0 but mostly mid-upper 80Fs will be the rule.  Although sea-breeze collisions will occur on several afternoons, warm air aloft will preclude the formation of nothing more than clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or shower toward the favored west side of the state south of Tampa during this time frame with the east coast sea breeze being the most dominant, at least going into Monday.

TUESDAY: The first of possibly 2..and dare say..maybe 3 storm systems will cross the Western tier of states, gradually working to erode the ridge's influence. It will be a long, drawn out affair...but with time the warm air aloft in the mid-upper levels will be eroded from north to south over the next week, but here on the ground our temperatures will remain warm.  The first of these systems will make a gradual sink into the Panhandle area on Tuesday there could be showers and thunderstorms over North Central Florida, working south with time into South Florida through Wednesday. If this does even occur, severe weather is not anticipated.

BEYOND: All things hinge on the long range forecast in regard to the image shown above. At this point in time perhaps it's wishful drought breaking fact, it is. But at least there it is in print. After writing that sentence, I thought to myself, "hey , I wonder what the folks at HPC are thinking? I could get their image for comparisons sake, whether or not it is in agreement"

The extended calls for Above average precipitation April 14-20th right during the normally driest time of the spring drought season...bizarre!

IN ESSENCE: To go out on the first limb of many (which I will not do)..the first limb will be one which could be a severe weather event beginning sometime around the 14th-15th time frame as noted yesterday (another possible event jumps out in guidance in an even later period). The ECMWF and GFS last night varied SIGNIFICANTLY with the handling of this time frame...but they seem to be falling in line in regard to the eventual outcome going into Tuesday through the 15th, and clearly from the image above the folks at HPC are willing to lay some bets on this.  ALL of Florida has a 'chance' to wipe the slate nearly clean of drought, or at least put a good dent in it, by the end of April if the GFS run of 8AM this morning comes anywhere close to fruition, considering that if it is correct (which it almost never is that far out in time)...the rains would continue until about the 23rd.  Please note, this is a Big "If".

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