|Active Storm Near Viera as Viewed from Cape Canaveral Looking SSW|
TODAY: Unlike what the GFS had proposed and as noted in the post yesterday, the temperatures aloft have not cooled as expected. Winds aloft are aloof, even lighter than yesterday. Moisture is still available but even so appears to be a bit less. There was a slight cap at the low levels today at KSC sounding time and the Convective Temperature was also warmer. What this all means for most of East Central Florida (esp. the east half or third of the central zone) is late activity today with little to go up along the onset of the east coast sea breeze during it's westward trounce. Regardless, given that the past two days there has been a strong to severe storm or two, will go with persistence of memory and give it another shot in the purple zone as a first hand guess for that possibility once again based on latest satellite imagery animations.
Model guidance was of little use today in the' where regard' as they all were in disagreement with each other for the most part, so tossed out the precip fields altogether for today. For example, activity has already begun near the Big Bend to parts of Western North Central or nearly so west of Ocala (see below), and some models showed no activity there at all until nearly dark. Whoops.
TOMORROW: Tomorrow will be a variation of today from what it looks like now but with a slightly better learning toward the east in the storm motion regards. Maybe just enough to make storms actually crawl ahead. As noted yesterday a mid level trough is working its way across the Ohio and upper Mississippi River Valley today and tomorrow and eventually toward the eastern Mid Atlantic Coast into Sunday and Monday. But it's a slow mover but the changes over Florida will be noted nonetheless in the storm steering regard.
Warm to relatively hot tomorrow and Sunday and perhaps Monday at the beaches or east of US1 up and down the east coast north of Ft. Pierce mainly with delayed sea breeze occurring and nearly cloud free skies. Higher heat indices implied as a result. As the trough proceeds toward the Mid-Atlantic storm steering will noticeably increase on Sunday into Monday from west to east giving the beach side though higher numbers on the Old Mercury, at least some chance of late day relief in the form of clouds, rains, or storm beyond a delayed sea breeze which might not occur north of the Cape at all come Monday and/or Tuesday.
Also noting, that 'come Monday" and beyond, dry slots continue to be shown by the GFS meaning the forecast might go down to more of the 'Isolated Storms' subtitle, though inevitably, that 'Isolated Number" might occur in a more concentrated area (namely toward the East Coast) so in that regard, it's going to perhaps be a moot point especially east of I95 residents from JAX south to Ft Pierce. That is to say, if an Orlando station says Isolated, that might only mean for the inland areas, and not the beaches.