"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 3, 2012

BIG Weather Changes Statewide Through Sunday

Current Noon Satellite Image with 'Blog Regions of  Consideration' Through 2pm Sunday.
Details in Text Below. Note captions in Full as Written in the Text. (this image also points at the "Lake Shadow" (of cloud free sky) right now due to SW winds blowing across stable Lake Okeechobee water's air)

TODAY: Cold front has entered the far western Panhandle of Florida and will progress only slowly today toward the east. A weak but stretched out area of low pressure is to form as guidance all shows along the Northern Gulf which will slow down southward progress during that time frame today and into most of the evening. Therefore, SSW-SW winds to continue today, with highs in the mid-upper 80Fs Statewide. It is possible that winds will increase a bit toward dark as far south as Dead Central as 2000 ft level winds (at 925 mb-- millibars) increase and translate to the ground. After which time, winds will remain overnight tonight from the SW to a slightly lesser degree except in the area immediately ahead of the front in North and North Central Florida toward early Sunday morning before Sunrise.

Current Front Position and this post's (not official) projection of its location
through 7AM (orange). The front will clear South Florida between 2-3pm Sunday. Also not the areas where Severe weather is 'possible' , but not everywhere. The chance of severe thunderstorms decreases south of the southern Red Line, although this is questionable,   threat could exist yet as far south as lavender if not more so
.  (Thinking the front could be delayed by as much as 2 hours) 

TONIGHT: Continued SW winds tonight and increasing clouds after dark from north to Central after 3AM. Overnight lows in the 60Fs after midnight. The front is shown by morning models (which are in close agreement) to be close to the Central "Dividing" Line (near SR 528 on the east side) around 7:30-8AM. Rain chances should begin generally one-two  hours prior to frontal location. Surface winds also increase around the same time. One can take this projection and translate it southward with time for those interests in far South Central and South Florida heading into late morning toward noon.

EARLY SUNDAY/SUNRISE: First off, I notice the latest RUC has a mid-level 'wind speed max' now showing up around 2AM west of Central Florida in the east central Gulf. This feature, if it is true, could result in needing to throw in a "Severe Risk" further south than the lavender line above and more toward Okeechobee as well as a slight delay across Central of the front's passage. 

Otherwise, be prepared for a period of rain and strong wind in the vicinity of heavier rain showers as the front approaches and possible severe winds (at or above 58mph as noted in the graphic). Winds just above 'the deck' are forecast to be nearly 50 knots at least, so down drafts if in only rain showers could result in surface winds in the 50-55mph range for a brief time as far south as South Brevard. 

I have included a schematic from the GFS model of the forecast Jet Stream Winds at the time the front crosses Central as a reference. These winds will never cross South Florida to such an extent, and realize also that the strongest mid to lower level atmospheric winds appear will pull out and across Florida north of Lake Okeechobee in the 35-55mph range (thus, the less chance of storms further south), given the steering of these winds at higher atmospheric altitudes.

NOTE strength of winds at jet stream early Sunday in blue squares, and front position at the same time. The fronts position in this graphic assumes a slight delay in passage across Central as opposed to the earlier images.

SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH DARK: Outside of any severe weather threats (mainly only in wind south of Volusia County) and the good chance of some measureable rainfall (mostly north of a line from Vero Beach to Sarasota) a lesser degree further south, prepare for a RAPID FALL in temperature behind the frontal boundary by as much as 15-20F degrees in the first 1-2 hours if not more. Thus, the high temperature on Sunday for folks in Central will occur near sunrise, with a noticeable fall after 8-9AM. Temperatures in the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs for instance could fall into the lower 50Fs by 11AM- noon. After and during this time, we can expect rapidly clearing skies and much drier air to move in on brisk NW winds of 15-32mph .  Only expect a slight rise in temperatures toward 60F, but winds will keep things on the cool side regardless.

LATE SUNDAY: All but perhaps the Keys will have cleared. Very cool temperatures.

MONDAY EARLY: Given the now lighter winds that will occur a few hours after sunset, but continuing from the NW-NNW, it appears one of the coldest spots in the state could be toward South Brevard County of all places and into Indian River County. 

All locations west of the Barrier's of Brevard and south will likely be in the lower to mid 40Fs, but would not be surprised to see upper 30Fs in the area noted above as well as much further north. Sky clear with lower winds, although heating on Monday could mix some winds to the ground to make highs in the low-mid 60Fs feel 'too cool' by comparison, but really not bad out of the shade. But this will be short-lived as winds die down toward late day. Outer Barriers of Brevard and A1A corridor to the south could see a low closer to 50F. 

TUESDAY: Little change in philosophy from past posts. Winds to becoming ENE overnight, with a possible surge in winds with some clouds by late morning if not sooner. No rain but highs in the upper 60Fs to lower-mid 70Fs possible already.

WEDNESDAY and THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF NEXT WEEK: Easterly winds for the duration, possible gusty at the coast after day break each day in the 12-22 mph range. Possibly more cloudy than not near the  east coast with a chance of sprinkles or light rain at any given point in time as Atlantic startocumulus clouds work ashore, although not much (if any) accumulations expected. The atmosphere will be too dry above perhaps 5000-7000 ft above ground, hardly enough depth of moisture to generate anything beyond a sprinkle or quick rainshower.   

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