"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Record Rainfall in Melbourne Yesterday. Today?


Can't say that record rainfall fell in Cape Canaveral late yesterday. We had a mere 0.31 inches...although surrounding areas got much more. Seemed this area was in the black hole, as often seems to be the case. Will today result be the same? Maybe.

Not much change from yesterday. Seems the quasi-stationary boundary, if one can even call it that, has made a southward drift since late yesterday and is now located somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa on the west coast, and across Melbourne on the east coast. It will waiver during the day as such boundaries do but in general remain south of Canaveral most of the day. Such motion will be indicative of the very weak low pressure 'bubbles' (nearly undetectable) as they move or almost just form and die along the 'boundary'. Such will be the case for the next two days with some minor differences as follows (below).

Today, expect a day only somewhat like yesterday. The main difference will be more clouds early in the day and slightly cooler temperatures due to the clouds. Convective instability will be decreased as a result, so this leaves the question open-ended as to just exactly how great the rainfall totals can be today. At least during the solid daylight period. Note, it could rain just about anytime today, but for now will leave the heaviest "stuff" to occur from early afternoon and points onward. During the early evening hours such rainfall (thunderstorms) is not as reliant on such factors as it is more coerced by the overall 'picture' of the surrounding atmosphere to get things going. Storm motion will again be close to nil, so whoever gets socked might be in for a healthy dousing of the wet stuff...quite measurable to say the least. Instability is below average, so don't expect storms to be particularily strong in character, but the feisty ones will deliver the ever dangerous and deadly lightning bolts. So beware! But there is a change in the offing.

Tomorrow and Friday, it looks like the mid-upper level trough will do a bit of active carving across the area. The frontal boundary will still lay directly across Central Brevard on the east side and across Tampa Bay on the west side of the state druing this process. Continued broad area of low pressure across the peninsula generally depicts the boundary, but now there will be sufficient steering currents from the WSW to move things along. Exactly how this will pan out as far as precipitation goes will be interesting. Both in amount and in type (plain rain or thunderstorms). I'm opting for a down the road vote right now and seeing a mix of both. Motion should be a good 15 miles an hour from the WSW versus the Nil flow we've had the past two days (and will have today as well). This could mean that specific areas won't get those heavy rainfall totals at first appearances, but 'training', or repeated in-flux of storms over the same area, will be quite the possiblity. Thus, we are not out of the woods quite yet (or for a while as far as that goes).

Yes, many eyes are on the tropics right now on entity Erika. I'm not going to place any bets on motion at this time, but in general I don't feel it will be a strong enough tropical system to ever warrant fear in the eyes of the beholder. But for kicks, it bears watching. It could actually impact the area in the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame in whatever morphed form it has assumed. Please keep attuned to posting by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the local national weather service for details.

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