"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 21, 2011

Limbo Today Before 36 hours of Winter Returns

Images: Low level relative humidity (very moist) overlapped with very generalized surface features at 11:45AM late this Friday morning.

RECAP: The image above by no means portrays everything that's happening in the atmosphere, but the greatest impact of the current state of affairs is captured in this image...mainly, moisture. We see the pre-frontal trough that crossed Central Florida bringing some periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunder has sunk south to around the line shown by the dashed red line (roughly). It will sink only ever so slowly further south through the remainder of the day now that it is caught up with parallel flow aloft to that at the surface.

Over Central Florida, at the low levels a very weak boundary consisting of mainly just a weak wind shift along it can be seen (drawn as a pseudo-stationary front) which technically is not necessarily correct, but it sums up the situation in any case. The boundary is awaiting mid-upper level support to move out, but that does not arrive in earnest until the overnight hours. There is zero low level upward forcing in this zone nor lifting mechanisms aloft to support any thing more than a random rain shower over Central the remainder of most of the day, but lots of the correct ingredients for clouds, as we can see.

Most of the South Half of the state (south of the stationary boundary) is encompassed in a broad area of low pressure of which a center is difficult to discern, that will remain there the remainder of almost daylight hours. Perhaps the best chance for any real rain and thunder will be over the Florida Keys toward Miami-Dade and up the East coast toward West Palm this afternoon ahead of the pre-frontal trough, but don't really see any severe potential there.

AFTER 6PM: Shortly after or near sunset, expect the broad area of low pressure over Florida to essentially flee its heat source (the landmass/Lake Okeechobee) in search of more food. That will be over the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

As such, the low will exit the state near West Palm/Ft Lauderdale and become re-situated and quite a bit more organized once it reaches and resides over that area, and then begins to follow the bread crumb trail (the warm water food source) northward to well off the coast of Brevard County. Otherwise, little else changes in regards to local weather. As the low begins to coalesce, we may see a brief period of a NE wind during the early evening along the coast, and another chance of rain showers as well where the stationary boundary is located within the backwash circulation of the off shore low any where from Brevard to Miami.

AFTER MIDNIGHT- 11AM, SATURDAY: Low begins to gather strength in place over the Gulf Stream with continued cloudy skies and a better chance of overnight showers but light in nature Who cares anyway, it'll be the middle of the night. Good for sleeping. Temperature to remain mild with a low near 60 Central, warmer South. By daybreak the low will be 'wound up' enough for circulation to have acquired a NW wind component across North and Central, continuing from the west to WSW South.

Showers ending by mid morning at the latest, Saturday, everywhere but far South and rapid clearing will ensue shortly after that time as well.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:...But clearing comes with a cost, namely much drier, colder air, heralded across the peninsula by upper level support passing to the North which will in turn eject our low pressure area off to the NE beginning mid morning and out of the picture. Cool air advection all day from noon time on all day with a NW wind getting a bit overly breezy between 1pm -6pm due to the tightening pressure gradient between impinging high pressure from the NW and the strengthening low pressure area to the ENE. Temperature will change very little all day from that at sunrise, perhaps even cool a few degrees Central, but not so much far south where the coolest air will not arrive until later in the day.

By Sunday morning, winds will have died down significantly from the NNW at 10mph or less, but it will be kind of cold with wide spread mid-30s interior, upper 30s from I-95 to US1 and closer to 40-43F Barrier Islands. Closer to freezing north of I-4 and possibly on the North Shore of Lake Okeechobee (far interior south). Clear most of the day and cool with highs in the low 60s along the coast, a little warmer further inland and south.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Another very cool morning, but not nearly as much so as Sunday morning, especially at the immediate coast with a light NNE - NE wind. Perhaps up to 10F degrees warmer than Sunday at the coast, but not quite the warm up inland. All comes at equal by early afternoon though as air mass modification begins in regards to departure of the coldest air. Our 36 hours of winter ends promptly at 11AM Monday morning.

BEYOND: Pedaling back to a possible active Tuesday as was thought would be the case two days ago. Don't believe a thing you hear today in regards to Tuesday/Wednesday just yet. Latest GFS has totally shifted gears with the last three model runs going from one extreme to the next, so not ready to bite on anything yet. Will weed through the mess with something better to chew on tomorrow morning. Regardless of this morning's run, though, I'd still be prepared for a wet period from Early Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday with a tremendous amount of details to be sorted, ironed, pressed, and neatly stowed.

One thing that does look consistent so far in regards to "BEYOND", the gravy train of rain producing storm systems passing over every 3-4 days looks like it may be about to reach its end, with the final system being the caboose. Will it go out with a bang?!! Maybe. Which could come, if it does, in the form of either a big thundery line of storms, or Winter, Part II OR, both or neither. Not going to sweat it out today though.

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