"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Some Strong/Marginal Severe Wind Gusts Possible in Storms Today

Downpour with rain-free ,lightning producing updraft  
over Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

RECAP: Abnormal amounts of rain and lightning for a summer day as depicted in the graphic of yesterday's post where multiple storms occurred. Rainfall varied vastly depending on one's location relevant to re-occurring cell propagation paths, with my location received 3.21". Highest rainfall totals were near the Tampa Area with one unofficial report well over 7" near South Pasadena. Not expecting such high totals today.  Wind gusts of 68mph and 78mph were reported by mesonet locations in Brevard County, with damage noted in that same county in several locations.

TODAY: Varied theme today due to continued cloud coverage resulting in lower low-level and mid-level lapse rates, although this will change during the course of the mid-late afternoon, especially for those areas in and near where big cloud breaks are most prevalent.  Sea breeze along the east coast due to cloud cover will be harder to come by, with showers and thunder already nearly half way across the state near I-4 toward 528. Believe the strongest activity will occur as a result of outflows from this activity and propagation along any sea breezes south of the Cape, with back-drafts from offshore showers/storms resulting in potentially more than one rain chance from Cape Canaveral toward Ft pierce or Vero Beach north of the Lake Okeechobee shadow in the WSW steering of 20kts.  Chances are it will be the first storm (or second) that will contain any strong winds since after that point cooling due to rain cooled air will erode the low level lapse rate differential.  Down Draft Cape over South Florida and dry mid level drying might prevent storms of strength altogether, but domino propagation south toward West Palm might result in an isolated event.

THURSDAY: One more day of a similar pattern, although coverage at this rate not expected to be as extensive. Surface ridge will be located already toward at least Lake Okeechobee which will lift further north on Friday putting an end to the pattern over the southern 2/3rds of the state. Easterly flow is then expected to develop across much of the state by Friday into the weekend as the upper level trough just north of the state is lifted north and east in response to a ridge of higher pressure building eastward from the Southwest U.S.

BEYOND: No surprises here regarding Isaac. The 'gravity' of the situation regarding the developing system's intensity and path are still, as always, up for grabs, debate, speculation, and gossip. At this conjunction, we can at least refer to various model projections varying from 15-75 miles off the east coast as a Category II Hurricane to on or just up a tracing of the entire west coast. Looking at history, such a path has never occurred, at least as far as what the morning GFS of 12Z shows. The previous run was a track similar to Hurricane Cleo of 1974 up the Center of the State, while the GFDL looked quite similar to that of Hurricane David of 1979 up the east coast. The apple falls not far from the tree.
Understand  that these are merely mathematical calculations based on current conditions which change continuously, and are thus a sampling of a wide variety of other schemes. The ECMWF has the storm now missing the state entirely
As a result of the future course of ISAAC, the weekend forecast is interminable.  It is noticed that if the storm takes a west coast track, it appears the storm overall will be a bit 'right handed/heavy'. This would the entire state in the NE quadrant of the storm at various times which could be or pose a tornado hazard.  On the other hand, an east coast track would pose little heavy rainfall threat other than close to the circulation. There is no  accounting for unexpected slowing down of the storm, which throws all to oft the track completely out of whack regardless of what any model at this point indicates
"Swirl Overhead!"

No comments: