"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 31, 2015

2016 To Start Out Too Cool and Too Wet

Front Row Seats For Sunrise Observances in Cocoa Beach 
DECEMBER 31ST - JANUARY 1 2016: Not much discernible change from the weather pattern of late for New Year's Eve. The "Omega Block" like pattern forecast to set up is in process but the impression is, it won't last long. Some potent storm systems will be  breaking the 'log jamming' over the U.S West Coast this upcoming week to put an end to the Block in quick fashion, but for Florida this will still mean a lot of up and down weather and difficult to forecast very well beyond even the mid-range .

 Per forecast discussions from NWS Offices agreement is that the first 'big change' will be with a cold frontal passage New Year's Day night well after dark from Central to South Florida. Southeast Florida almost escapes the much cooler air entirely   but folks Central and North will see a significant difference come Sunday where little rise in temperatures out of the 50Fs will occur. That is a far cry from highs inland in the mid-upper 80Fs that have been being observed.

Depiction of Front Position across Florida New Year's Day Afternoon
with first system approaching (Near the Baja)

SUNDAY: Lows in the mid 50Fs with increasing cloud cover. Rains are forecast to increase in earnest by noon time and then really make an 'impact' from early afternoon toward midnight into very early Monday. Remaining cloud cover with lighter rain near the coast should end by afternoon if not sooner and a little warmer.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Improving conditions but could get quite breezy while yet another system is on the approach for WEDNESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY:  This system 'might' pack even more of a rainfall punch than from the previous system.

The GFS is showing between the two systems rainfall could be as much as 6" or more inches....questionable , yes. Yet, we might be able to expect across Central anything from 2 - 4" between the two systems in only a 4 day period. And if more, well then can't say the Global Forecast System model didn't warn us. And it's not over yet. Another system is slated toward the Friday time frame.  Might also be able to expect some thunder with any of these forthcoming systems, so far, especially the second one coming mid-week. Heavy downpours or even strong winds from elevated potentially slightly rotating storms.

The coldest temperatures will be associated with the passage of the first system going into Tuesday morning after which onshore flow should bring moderating temperatures though it could get quite breezy to even windy somewhere going into Tuesday before the next system approaches.

NWS discussions vary on degree on rainfall as the GFS and EURO model apparently are not in full agreement.

Therefore, if receiving information from news sources might be prepared to hear varying stories about what the upcoming days have to bring from one source to the next or even from the same source from one day to the next, as models have been shifting around quite a bit from run to model run.

The 'mayhem' might continue as far as toward January 10th or 11th as yet one more system is foreseen in the days ahead beyond Wednesday. We'll just have to see how that one pans out.

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