|THE TROUGH OF IRENE IS BREAKING AWAY, PROGRESSIVELY LEAVING FLORIDA|
IN A "STATE' OF LIMBO BY LATER TODAY/MiD-EVENING
FLORIDA TODAY: A bit of another conundrum forecast today, no things are set in stone by a long shot. The mid-level trough associated with Irene's Absorption is beginning to 'cut-off- as high pressure attempts to build in from the west toward the Mid-Atlantic. It still has a full 24 hours before its influence will be exerted further north where some strong storms are possible along the coastal mid-Atlantic. Near Florida, the cut off process is reflected by a weak surface circulation as shown above in the 'actuals', also reflected in short term model RUC. Dry air is trying to encroach into northern portions of North Central. South Central and South are fully entrenched in moisture. Early start to convection has spread debris clouds to the east coast, so the forecast for the south east side of the state today is up in arms. Can thunder form with the cloudiness? i'm thinking no, but giving them the benefit of the doubt for now that outflow from activity further west could erupt some showers and maybe thunder close to the coast of Palm Beach County and South. Should mention, the Panhandle region and most areas along I-10 are going to start running into a big fire danger/drought situation if things do not improve there. It looks like they are almost already starting to see the end of the thunderstorm season, if not for good. High pressure will be building in later in the week, and it is dry.
IN SUMMARY: Warm today with highs a few tics above normal before any rain approaches..north of South Florida and away from increasing showers and thunder going into early afternoon. Rains should start to move in by noon time from the SSW-SW Central/North Central. Some areas might see rain more than once due to earlier onset, especially inland and toward the west side. If heavier storms develop more toward the interior, coastal areas will see mostly lighter rains and isolated thunder. All areas becoming cloudy by mid - late afternoon south of a Daytona.
The sketchy area to also watch, although not highlighted in the graphic is the Flagler/North Volusia coastal areas. This area will be most influenced by dry, mid-level air in a region of strongest down draft CAPE (because of the drier air). Often, the drier air inhibits storm formation altogether because it is often associated with warm air as well in the mid-levels. That might not be the case today as the afternoon progresses. Hopefully it has been made clear that nothing is a given today north of Lake Okeechobee.South Florida? I see what models are depicting, but not so sure the rains showing up in high numbers won't amount to clouds in high numbers instead, especially if more activity redevelops toward SW Florida.
TROPICS: No way Jose', you're history. Literally. Meanwhile, the bigger area of interest is SW of the Cape Verdes off the SW Coast of Africa where a depression was determined to exist as of 5AM. This area is large, and encased between two areas of drier SAL air (Saharan Air Layer) as seen below. The forecast track is show. This system will become most likely Katina within 24-36 hours or so.
For kicks, included are two storm tracks from 1964. Back to back big ones Cleo and Dora.
Note that they originated near the same area. Recall, the original forecast track of Irene for a good while was for the storm to hit Florida, but it never got far enough south and west into the Caribbean to perform like Cleo.
|CLEO. IRENE FORMED INTO A HURRICANE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND TOWARD THE NE TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC|
For more kicks, forecast tracks out in time. Forecasts only, not gospel. Look how much Irene's track in the forecast changed every 6 hours until that was set in stone. A lot will depend on what happens THROUGH the next 72-96 hours.