|Sunset From Canaveral over the Banana River as Storms Decay Near By|
TODAY: No surprises from past several posts regarding the pattern change that was to come and is now in place. Though storms could occur most anywhere ( not necessarily everywhere for a few small reasons), the area to thus watch for is the one that might have some activity beyond the scattered garden variety that has some dynamical reason for being stronger.
Today, that area appears to be along the east coast and perhaps just in from the coast south of I/4 (Daytona area) and more so from Brevard County and South along to east of I-95. The reasons for that being:
(1) This area is most likely to have a sea breeze though close to the coast; and ;
(2) The area will be for the most part last to receive the better rain chances, giving the atmosphere more time to destabilize prior to arrival of the west coast sea breezes and any antecedent out flows from earlier activity (perhaps even from yesterday) that might be in this. Aloft, there are really no outstanding features that would warrant a better 'strong storm' suggestion, so in the long run it will be a random situation;
(3) Though, There is an upper level low east of the state, circulation on the back side of that system could result in some upper level divergence mainly affecting the area also noted in the graphic with all the blues/purples (below).
It is possible that either more than one round of showers/Storms could also occur in that area and/or the outflows from activity moving off shore will 're-meet newer activity moving in from the west (at about 10-13 mph) and generate more activity, in the long run, it could take a while for the east coast showers/rains to end tonight (albeit eventually only very light).
WEDNESDAY: Chance of stronger storms Central Florida. The cold front that has been advertised across the eastern half of the U.S. for several days now is on the march and should reach the Florida panhandle.
Meanwhile, some upper level divergence should remain over the state to varying degrees, and the GFS indicates stronger winds in the mid levels, especially across Central Florida tomorrow.
On the down side for stronger storms though, no seabreeze tomorrow and activity could get an early start. Thus, this is a very conditional chance of the 'strong stuff', and might be limited to only the very far east side if activity initiates and works into the interior too early in the day.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: More chances for thunderstorms moving east beginning by early afternoon, but decreasing from north to south. Though the true cooling effect of the front is not anticipated to much reach south of I-10, there is some drying that might get drawn south from high pressure to form over the eastern gulf, clockwise circulations around that high could pull some drier and/or more stable air south with the better chance of rains by Friday afternoon over South Florida.
WEEKEND: So far looks drier as the steering shifts from east toward the west. Though that pattern favors the west side for the late day storms, it might be a meager run storm wise as the atmosphere will be drier.
A return to a more normal July doldrums pattern returns "Come Monday. when it'll be alright".