"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms "Friday": Not Necessarily "Good"

 ""When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red. And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times?"

TODAY: A few thunderstorms are occurring over portions of South Florida at time and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has lowered the Slight Risk of Severe in that region of yesterday down to a 'See Text" (as suspected might end up being the case), but that might be generous but for later today toward West South Central. Otherwise, a bit breezy along the east coast (especially) with gusts over 30 mph eastern portions as far north as JAX south toward Brevard.  This could be a sign of stronger high pressure than thought, which is throwing the future-casts out of sync.  After some activity over The South, expect the evening to be in and out clouds with slowly fading winds as a warm front develops and lifts north across Central early to mid day tomorrow. Perhaps some isolated showers.

FRIDAY: There is some fairly significant differences in model guidance, both between the various models and consecutive runs within models. Having no access to the ECMWF, but in reading the discussions from those that do, see little benefit at this time at least of knowing one from the other as disparities continue right up through the morning GFS and NAM Runs. The NAM is considerably slower and further south with a surface low, the GFS is a bit further north and just a bit faster.  Between Three Models its like 'this one is just a little to hot, this one a little to cold, and this it correct?" Both are showing a surface low though in the eastern gulf, but placement is spuriously inconsistent at best in regard to where it will be located and when. This holds much bearing on the end result over Florida as upper level features never fully integrate with those at the surface in a manner that would produce 'active weather' but perhaps along I-4 toward I-10 (as of this time), less so toward Dead Central and even less so more from near Lake Okeechobee and south. 

Therefore, at best, this blog post (which is 'most unofficial') is only capturing Generalities and rounding off what appears to be a best-guess.

GFS (Global Forecast System Model) Depiction for the surface features
per noted time

With the above scenario, a warm front will be located 'somewhere' across Central Florida late tomorrow afternoon lifting north toward dark. Rain should be ongoing already at this time toward I 10 and perhaps toward I-4 with some other showers further south possible,  potentially becoming 'thunder' near the warm front. It is expected to lift at least toward I-10 over night (or maybe sooner). Again, timing is everything and since models do not agree, we'll have to wait it out for more runs to be released to get a better grasp on the situation much like an unfolding, 'real to life' news drama.


LATE FRIDAY/OVERNIGHT: This seems to be the big question mark in the sky right now. Without going into details, since at this point it would be meaningless in the big picture, would suffice it to say: 'remain a bit engaged with the local news outlet (s) of preference beginning late Friday morning'. 

SATURDAY: Surface and mid level low will be slow to move out. That much at least is agreed upon. So far, appears could be a chance of rain ending by mid morning if not sooner toward the east coast, to as late as Saturday afternoon before sunset.

EASTER ISSUES:  Guidance again differs on temperatures Sunday morning at Sunrise. ..from mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, as well as cloud coverage. The low being slow to move out will have wrap around moisture associated with it. Point being, will we even see the Sun Rise this Day?  We might need some Saving Grace in that regard,  but at least so far it doesn't look like the eggs will have to remain in hiding due to rainfall and running dye unless they now make it waterproof. 

BEYOND: Again, the beyond looks fairly benign for nearly a week at least. Hints at some very warm days ahead are being indicated though, which would be normal for the most part. Winter might have already seen it's last gasp the other morning, and if not, maybe on Sunday morning. It definitely appears to be losing breath in any case.

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