FRIDAY: There is some fairly significant differences in model guidance, both between the various models and consecutive runs within models. Having no access to the ECMWF, but in reading the discussions from those that do, see little benefit at this time at least of knowing one from the other as disparities continue right up through the morning GFS and NAM Runs. The NAM is considerably slower and further south with a surface low, the GFS is a bit further north and just a bit faster. Between Three Models its like 'this one is just a little to hot, this one a little to cold, and this one..is it correct?" Both are showing a surface low though in the eastern gulf, but placement is spuriously inconsistent at best in regard to where it will be located and when. This holds much bearing on the end result over Florida as upper level features never fully integrate with those at the surface in a manner that would produce 'active weather' but perhaps along I-4 toward I-10 (as of this time), less so toward Dead Central and even less so more from near Lake Okeechobee and south.
Therefore, at best, this blog post (which is 'most unofficial') is only capturing Generalities and rounding off what appears to be a best-guess.
|GFS (Global Forecast System Model) Depiction for the surface features |
per noted time
|"GENERAL OVERVIEW FROM WHATEVER MIGHT COME ABOUT BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY TOWARD SUNRISE"|
LATE FRIDAY/OVERNIGHT: This seems to be the big question mark in the sky right now. Without going into details, since at this point it would be meaningless in the big picture, would suffice it to say: 'remain a bit engaged with the local news outlet (s) of preference beginning late Friday morning'.
SATURDAY: Surface and mid level low will be slow to move out. That much at least is agreed upon. So far, appears could be a chance of rain ending by mid morning if not sooner toward the east coast, to as late as Saturday afternoon before sunset.
EASTER ISSUES: Guidance again differs on temperatures Sunday morning at Sunrise. ..from mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, as well as cloud coverage. The low being slow to move out will have wrap around moisture associated with it. Point being, will we even see the Sun Rise this Day? We might need some Saving Grace in that regard, but at least so far it doesn't look like the eggs will have to remain in hiding due to rainfall and running dye unless they now make it waterproof.
BEYOND: Again, the beyond looks fairly benign for nearly a week at least. Hints at some very warm days ahead are being indicated though, which would be normal for the most part. Winter might have already seen it's last gasp the other morning, and if not, maybe on Sunday morning. It definitely appears to be losing breath in any case.