"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

A Very Isolated, Potentially Severe Storm or Two Possible

Storm Moves into Cape Canaveral on Monday Afternoon
TODAY: Not much change from yesterday and in advance, so far not much change is in store for tomorrow either. High pressure in the lower levels continues to hover off SW Florida and is forecast to 'bubble around' the far Eastern Gulf and possibly migrate toward North Florida in the next few days.
Being on the right descendant side of this high pressure is resulting in dryer mid level air under the current circumstances and more of a north to south storm motion set up, at least for the north half of the state. 

'Mourning' model data and soundings shows a mixed bag of dry and moist air in different levels of the atmosphere but various locations have the moisture in different areas as well, with a fairly uniform PWAT (precipitable water) spread though deceiving; regardless, none of this looks particularly favorable for anything but isolated activity. Temperatures at the KSC site were cold in the upper levels and so-so further down for more vigorous storm activity, but would be conducive for strong wind gusts and small hail. As of the latest, the RAP Mesoscale Analysis combination was showing the best likelihood for larger hail over Central Florida but this will likely shift or could dissipate entirely by this afternoon. Looks like an  atypical, on the dry side, type of Florida summer day, but  one which could produce  'Big" where something does happen.  

The 'graphic' per this armchair position is not much different than yesterday other than to note that activity has a slower start near Cedar Key  today than previous days had and thatan outflow boundary is showing up on visible satellite animations which could put a kick in the west coast sea breeze north of Tampa Bay (TBW) in the next few hours. Given other conditions notwithstanding the 'Central FLorida Curse" of a moisture bald spot over part of South Central at one level, and another dry slot over North Central, it'll all come down to the late afternoon sea breeze/lake breeze and coastal helicity with moderately high Cape Play as to where initial and true growth will occur.

BEYOND:  A bit drier than normal appears to be in the cards for the next several days, with the only possible real change in some of the GFS runs and the ECMWF run coming about later in the weekend or toward the first three days of next week. Until then, the day by day (as usual) conundrums with  arm flailing and  "Facepalm  guess-casts"  continues.

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