"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, December 27, 2010

Two More Cold Days in Store, Then the Coin Flips

Images: A comparison of 'actual' low temperature ranges at 8am with the forecast GFS temperatures for this morning shows the forecast and actuals are closely matched. Lastly, we see the temperature forecast by Friday morning. That's about a 30 degree warm up, or twice as warm than this morning by the end of the week on the numbers scale.

TODAY: High pressure is building south from the middle of the country as the low pressure bomb responsible for all the snow and cold over the eastern U.S. continues NNE (which will provide cold weather havoc for Maine today as the rest of eastern seaboard clears out in the wake of Sunday's blizzard conditions). Subsidence ahead of the high pressure and departure of the remaining upper level vorticity that spun overhead North and Central Florida yesterday accompanied by drier air throughout the atmosphere will yield to a clear sky today and gradual appeasement of the wind machine.

Winds have died down significantly since yesterday, but will remain elevated around 12-25mph this afternoon as the sun's full strength (and subsequent heating) mixes the colder air aloft to the surface, especially on the east side of the rivers (namely over the intracoastal and the barrier islands). Believe the high temperature forecast for today, as mentioned yesterday, is a bit on the warm side and that only upper 40s (but very close to 50F if not right on the mark) will be reached along a Cape Canaveral to Brooksville line, but the apparent temperature will not be as bad with the full sun today and less wind to contend with, especially in wind protected areas that are directly in the sun.

Low 50s are a better bet from near Patrick AFB to Tampa and points south (including the Melbourne area) and mid-upper 50s widespread across South Florida, with 60s in the Keys. Winds should notably decrease late this afternoon after peak heating has relaxed (and mixing) has begun to abate, with the strength waning to the 10mph or slightly less range by sunset or shortly thereafter.

TONIGHT: Another cold night in store as high pressure settles further south toward North Florida and the low departs even further up through Maine and Nova Scotia, simultaneously relaxing the pressure gradient between these two entities even more. Winds will have died down significantly by sunset from what they are this morning, but remain a small factor as far as preventing a classic radiational cooling synoptic set up for Central and South Florida overnight. Winds will veer very late today from WNW to NW and even NNW in some locales over night in the 5-8mph range.

As such, the colder air will penetrate further south, down the spine of the state and take the freezing temperatures further south with them and more toward the west side of the state by daybreak, Tuesday, as opposed to this morning with the WNW wind of this Monday morning.

TUESDAY MORNING: It was relatively warm over by Tampa this morning (around 40F) but do not believe that will be the case Tuesday morning. The coldest temperatures will be found west of US1 to the west coast and south to Punta Gorda and the Big Lake region, while the east coast (East of US1) will be about the same as we were this morning if not a couple degrees warmer.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: High pressure still just to the north will settle even further south with a light NNW wind all day under full sun. Cold air advection will have ceased with a gradual warm up showing its first hints as afternoon temperatures reach the mid-50s everywhere across Central Florida with continued light winds and full sunshine.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will be elongated over all of the Eastern United States with a center along the Appalachians and a secondary displaced core of more 'mesoscale nature' near Central Florida at day break. Believe this will be the most prime of mornings for radiational, drainage flow and cold air trapped underneath, cooling nature as the high pressure inversion affects the state's interior. Remember, that there is a lot of snow covered ground now further north, the air immediately above which is at the freezing point. The cold air will originate under the high pressure inversion and ooze along the earth's cracks and crevices from the snow covered grounds and higher elevations of the Appalachians down the state's spine after midnight given permission by the nearly calm winds. The areas from US1 and points east though should fare much better with upper 30s and low 40s being the rule from Daytona south and even warmer south of Ft. Pierce.

On the other side of the coin, with the first hints of daylight even the coldest of areas will be quick to rebound under full sun with temperatures racing through the 40s and into the 50s by noon time. Low and even mid 60s will be found by peak heating from Titusville to Brooksville south as the high pressure ever so slowly works east during the day and a light ENE wind develops to the west of its clockwise circulation over Florida.

THURSDAY: Over night Wednesday night, the high pressure area will continue off to the east of the state of Florida allowing continued air mass modification to be in full swing. Morning low temperatures along the coast will be comparable to that of the ocean temperatures and be in the mid-upper 50s, colder away from the water. Afternoon temperatures will be just above 70 from the Space Center south to the keys away from the immediate coast, but believe that the models and numerical guidance are overshooting the mark as far as how warm it will actually get east of US1.

Remember, it will have been very cold for several days now, and the ocean will have cooled even more from where it has been. Do not believe guidance is taking this fact into account, and as such with a light onshore wind component for many days to come, anything above 72F will be very hard pressed to make its presence known along the A1A corridor north of Satellite Beach even under full sunshine. Inland zones will fare better by all accounts as afternoon highs warm from low 70s to mid, high end mid 70s in some areas, as we head toward the weekend.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: Pretty much back to 'normal', with lows in the mid-upper 50s (with mid-upper 40s well inland in isolated 'pockets' and highs in the low-mid 70s with the A1A corridor north of Satellite Beach or perhaps Melbourne Beach flirting more with a high between 67-69F as winds will remain subtly from the east. But all in all, we will be looking at morning low temperatures 20-25F degrees warmer than what will occur today by Friday and even more so on Saturday.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM/WEATHER MAKER: There is none foreseen within a reasonably foreseeable future, much to our relief. Granted, the weather will be benign at best, but benign beats freezing! Yes, I can do 'benign' in the winter as opposed to during the summer. "Benign" in winter means cool to very cool mornings, slightly warm afternoons, and clear to partly cloudy skies. "Benign" in the summer usually means humid, warm or hot, partly cloudy skies with no relief of rain or an exciting thunderstorm in sight...accompanied by mosquitoes and cockroaches. Perhaps winter is good for something after-all (once it gets above 65F degrees).

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