"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Pattern Shift Now Occurring, Rain chances Increase

Complex mid-upper level pattern developing today over the NE states
and South Central into the Northern Gulf. The trough further south will not effect Florida directly later today, but will do so Monday and Tuesday before possibly lifting out almost due north to NNE by mid-week
TODAY: As expected , noted 48 hours ago (per the GFS weather forecast model), full pattern swing is in place today. Onshore easterly winds will be less prevalent today, remaining close to the coast as upper level westerlies and mid level SW winds, albeit light increase by mid afternoon. High clouds over parts of the state seem to be getting ready to clear to some degree. The GFS has been consistent with showing the greatest instability from south of I-4 to Miami, mainly due to some drier mid-level air further north.  The Short Term Analysis at the Storm Prediction Center access point (aka, Mesoscale Analysis Page) shows this well via high down draft CAPE values, working toward the Beach Line (Dead Central zones). 

If so, it might be hard for thunder to come by today in that area except toward I-95 and east from near Titusville and southward. It is possible some thunder could be experienced therefore in North and Central Brevard County today after 4-5pm, although the depiction below shows only rain showers as storms might have a hard time shooting high into the atmosphere against the down draft CAPE in the presence of warming upper level temperatures. 

The better chance for thunder is shown in orange.  As noted above, the upper level temperatures are expected to warm later today as warmer air aloft is drawn northward ahead of a strengthening low pressure area to our west also previously shown.

Again, Northern More zone at this time lacks drivers and instability, but the GFS is showing some rain along the east coast later today all the way up to JAX (which is not shown in the post today). It also shows possible thunder in Brevard (also not shown). There is no sign of thunder producers being imminent as of noon time with few cumulus clouds (the harbingers of thunderstorms) showing up on satellite imagery and days are getting shorter. But, changes are in progress as we read and write in the grand, synoptic scale. For purposes of today's post, have taken thunder out...except as shown in orange.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much better chances of rain and thunder many areas as moisture increases from the South, being pulled northward ahead of a low pressure trough deepening and shifting east ward.

WEDNESDAY: This too could be another transitional day if the trough to our west begins to lift northward. If so, mechanisms for the east coast thunder machine could begin to wane, yet, moisture remains under the auspices  foreboding the chances of coastal and offshore showers and inland daytime thunder; but, thunder could occur almost anywhere really, with limited nocturnal activity toward the beaches. 

There is no "down for the count at any particular time" rain-outs lurking around the next bend, but rain chances  do remain to be accompanied by  warm over night lows and continued status quo day time highs in the limelight through the remainder of this coming week into next weekend.

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