|" PORT CANAVERAL PALMS"|
(June 27th, 2013)
Locally, upper level winds are shifting a bit and an MCS (mesoscale convective system) is expected potentially to impact the panhandle region tonight. Morning sunrise showed ACCAS (altocumulus castellanus, "Castles in the Sky") clouds overhead the CAPE area which do indicate mid-level instability which could mean strong to severe storms, but the low levels need to 'couple' with the mid-levels in order for this to do so, which does not appear will be the case today, if even the same mid-level condition even exist later today.
Friday, June 28th 2013
SOUTH: Sea breeze likely from Ft Pierce and South with slower steering, better sea breeze convergence could lead to some stronger storms near Lake Okeechobee-sea breeze mergers. Guidance is split with either strong storms in the region to nearly no storms at all which seems a bit extreme, although latest guidance in some shows the mid-levels almost too dry to support any activity at all which is likely why the 'dry' is shown. For now, will ride with storms down there if not at least toward Ft Pierce south to West Palm Beach in general.
NORTH: Latest Mesoscale analysis is showing already very high Convective Available Potential Energy advecting onshore in the order of 5500, compared closer to later today of 3000 Central zones. If storms can't get going along the sea breeze fronts earlier over the Panhandle, they could be in for some stronger activity later tonight coming in from the N- NNW.
Activity today should remain fairly isolated, especially Central until much later today. Earlier activity South Florida (as usually is the case) could send outflows northward (if it can form). Latest RUC is showing an unusually strong side shore like 'sea breeze' boundary right up the coast late today which can spell 'trouble' for the northernmost Barrier Island area toward the Cape and up to New Smyrna as activity approaches from the west with steering today from west to east at 10-15mph. Any storm that could latch on the boundary and build south against this breeze could pull off some surprise stunts, but such situations are unforecastable in advance and very rare.
It appears at this time the North Half of the state is being indirectly influenced in the mid-upper levels by the remains of an MCS from the Great Lakes region two days ago as some cirrus and altocu is working from north to south early today. Additionally, it appears some sort of 'faux' mid-upper level trough might set up somewhere between I4 toward 528 as the day wears on which could act as a catalyst for late day to early evening storm initiation outside of the normal sea breeze -lake breeze activity.
|"PORT CANAVERAL ARCUS / GUST FRONT VISTA"|
If the GFS is correct, there might also be a bit of dry air across Central. About the only thing consistent today with yesterday is that activity toward East Central might end up initiating as a result of activity (winds) mergers with outflow from the south . The other option is the activity from the south works north; or lastly, that there will be several rounds of showers and some thunder east of I-95 depending on one's location (in regard to the area from Melbourne and north.
In brief, it's still up in the air just exactly what and where the weather will happen today in regard to rain and thunder. Some strong storms possible as shown in the image above depending on the which scenario, if any of them, evolves.
|"STORMY COLOR CONTRAST SUNSET, CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA"|
|"DISTANT RAIN SHOWER REFLECTIONS'|
CAPE CANAVERAL BEACH