|Small showers and some thundershowers, possible heavier storms in yellow with stronger wind gusts especially north Florida late this afternoon into early evening|
TODAY: Much different pattern today, with more sun at last. There is some negating factors that will preclude larger storms through 5pm though at least. Not to say there will not be a lot of spotty showers and some thunder, but a large complex that moved across the South Half of the state overnight left residual ' stabilizing aftermath' . Stable means not good for storms, so despite activity getting underway already as I type, the atmosphere really does need to recover into unstable mode more cleanly.
A boundary seems to exist, sort of a pseudo-warm front as was noted yesterday could happen, from near the Cape NW ward and over the Panhandle. Additionally low level shear is up and down the east coast with a weak sea breeze. The intersect is somewhere near Volusia or Brevard County along the boundary and where winds cross it from the WSW aloft, so that area especially east 1/2 of Volusia and north 1/2 of Brevard bears watching later today, as well as along I-95 further south, and across I-10. Lifted parcel levels are too high earlier today, this mid-afternoon, for deep convection but the character of activity could take on a different flavor after 5:50pm or so, especially after 6:30pm in those yellow areas. Activity could continue well into mid-evening they fade of later tonight in isolated pockets. Some of the storms could be 'tricky' today along toward the Cape especially and near the east side of Lake Okeechobee from Vero to West Palm Beach.
SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More isolated type activity except toward the interior north of Lake Okeechobee but closer to the coast near and north of I-4.In short, nothing has changed in this line of thinking since yesterday.
LATE TUESDAY: A weakly defined trough will be near the Central to western Panhandle with an upper level dropping southward, quite broad at that. This will eventually set up more of a SW Flow aloft, pushing activity toward the east coast. This is first noted well north of 'the Big Lake' on Tuesday, but the rest of the state gets into the action Wednesday -Friday or Saturday. Although it is getting to be mid-June, it really does not look at all like a typical summer set up, as again the southern branch jet and lots of boundaries around of synoptic scale size will be in place as opposed to a pattern being dictated by placement of high pressure ridges typical of a summer regime.
BEYOND: Will be watching for 'something' to form in the far Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan to surge northward. The GFS is consistent with bringing anything from a large tropical storm like feature or simply 'organized moisture surges embedded in broad low pressure toward Florida", whereas the ECMWF yesterday as too the GFS brought a tropical like feature into the far eastern Gulf with tropical storm type winds across Florida. The ECMWF shifted gears this morning taking something well to the west, whereas the GFS takes less organization further east. Not even a surface low in fact. Thus, the area is worth watching when that time comes around. That time frame being the beginning of the week after the one coming up already alluded to in the previous paragraph., or around the 15-20th of June.