"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Much Warmer Through Saturday

SYNOPSIS: High pressure center almost dead overhead Central Florida this Thursday morning and getting poised to shift further toward the east and south during the early afternoon. Light SE flow just a few thousand feet above ground level (AGL) will translate to the surface later today. In the meantime, a cold frontal system is taking shape which stretches from the Carolinas SW' ward across S. Arkansas and into East Central Texas.

TODAY: Warming trend has already begun. Morning low here at Cape Canaveral was around 39F but by 10am had already warmed into the mid-upper 50s and about to already breach yesterday's high temperature of 59F on the porch. Much the same is occurring across the Peninsula. Early morning was interesting, with a temperature at Punta Gorda of 36F while Milton NAS in the Panhandle was 67F! A sign of things to come today.

High pressure over head resulted in calm to near calm winds early this morning, but the wind just above the surface is out of the ESE-SE as the high starts to retreat toward the ESE. Believe full retreat will be in order by around the 1-2pm time frame, at which time the wind will take on a more southwesterly component and temperatures warm accordingly toward th 70F, especially from Melbourne South. The north half of Brevard will be close to the mark though, but thinking the Cape Canaveral, Cocoa, Merritt Island to Titusville area will be mainly around 67-69F for the majority of the afternoon. A few widely scattered stratocumulus clouds were hovering overhead near the coast this morning indicative of the moistening, warming air mass awaiting in the wings just overhead. Awaiting, that is, to make a landing. We'll have touchdown!

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Continued SW winds all day with a few more clouds at various levels with a much warmer overnight low temperature. Believe the coolest temperatures will be found well inland the 40s. Along and east of US1 up and down the coast the low should remain above 50F though with the 60s looming just offshore awaiting rising of the sun to harbor in yet another and even warmer day with widespread low-mid 70s from Ormond Beach to Brooksville south.

Meanwhile, the cold front will have entered the the Florida Panhandle where it will go stationary, generating widespread cloudiness and rains from near Tallahassee and points west of there.

SATURDAY: Front to remain stationary over far North Florida. WSW winds in the 10-15mph range for South and Central Florida. It may be that the east side of the state will feel the warmest temperatures since on that side of the state the wind will not be blowing across the by now cooled waters of the Gulf of Mexico...but rather have time to warm as they blow across the landmass before reaching the east side of the state. More partly cloudy skies will be in order, with maybe some nearly cloudy skies by late in the day due to high level cirrostratus clouds. But all in all, Saturday looks to be the warmest day of all for many to come.

The models have slowed on the cold front's progress, varying anywhere from a 6-18 hour delay on its arrival. Initially, and as written yesterday, it looked like the majority of Saturday after noon time would be pretty cloudy and wet for all of Central Florida...but we could still eke out another 12 hours of warm and dry air.

SUNDAY: Front to have finally sagged south into Central Florida by day break, making its passage during the course of the day. It looks like any rain associated with the boundary will hold off until after dark Saturday night, but begin before that time from a Tampa - Ocala - to south of St. Augustine line, teasing the Orlando area. By Sunday, daybreak, the rain will not be far away from Orlando to the coast. As such, cloudy for starters but still warm by comparison to days past. Might have the warmest temperatures of the day in the morning though, since it now appears the front will cross the entire Central Florida threshold during the mid-late morning hours. After which, they will remain steady or drop a bit under slowly clearing skies.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Post frontal conditions, but not so fast. Need to watch just exactly how fast and aggressively the entire boundary and its contents continues east and south. High pressure will build behind the front, but instead of approaching south Florida as was the case in our last cold episode, it will remain to the north. This could harbor in a more easterly flow and thus quick airmass modification behind the other words, the weather on Sunday and Monday is not set in stone in my mind.

On the flip side, that's good thing if you don't like cold. The slower and longer the front takes to clear the area, the longer it will stay warmer. Unfortunately, it might also mean it will be cloudy longer, especially along and east of I-95.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Next front still poised to approach on Wednesday and will likely got through dry, not withstanding some clouds though. Again, no big cold surge to the freezing level anticipated with this boundary with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s.

TOWARD CHRISTMAS: The next cold and windy spell now appears will occur sometime around Christmas Eve to Christmas Day.

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