|TRICKY Forecast today with guidance varying from showing |
a worst case scenario to close to a "No Case" Scenario.
This depiction is closer to the 'worst case' depiction
Instability is not shown to be quite as strong on the Mesoscale analysis page today, but the LDIS (Local Data Integration System) which runs locally is showing more instability than yesterday...so which is it? Sounding showed a lot of dry air aloft and MESO shows pretty strong downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as a result meaning it could be tough to get any serious storms going, but once one can go, the trend should be set for the rest to follow suite for the potential of small hail and/or strong wind gusts.
The question is, "Can they even get going?". This post falls in line with Official Outlets for the most part though location for strongest activity likely is leaning too far to the east as was the case in the posted image yesterday.
Being on the coast is a bit misleading as a steady river / sea breeze is blowing from the SSE, yet inland locations show something quite a bit different with light south winds . Guidance is showing winds just above the deck from the SW at around 15 KTS which would keep activity pegged more toward the east, but the KSC sounding did not show this to be the case at all, thus, the strongest activity might be located a bit further inland than what is shown in this image. The higher chance of some stronger activity is due to a number of factors combined with that upper level divergence 'might' increase across the North half of the state later today. The JAX area for better chances of severe per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) was omitted from this post.
BEYOND: As noted previously, every day will be a case by case basis with more thunder possible through Friday, but probably lowering in strength as a result of more cloud coverage as the frontal boundary eases toward Central Florida and goes quasi-stationary going toward Friday and/or Saturday.
The front should clear all but the FLorida Keys on Sunday afternoon or so and remain to the south. No big rain chances are then foreseen for nearly a week after this coming weekend, for the most part.