"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, March 13, 2017

Increasing Clouds/Rain Chances - Possible Strong - Severe Storm Late

Peacocks in the Tree Tops - Cape Canaveral Sunday Morning
TODAY: Second of two impulses (the weaker one yesterday) to cross the state near I-4 this evening. Latest guidance implies the potential for weak surface reflection of the disturbance to take the form of a fast moving but weak surface low associated with a developing frontal boundary.

Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover approaching all but far South Florida as of 10AM so areas in Central that are still seeing blue sky, the time will be drawing nigh for that to go away, maybe by the time this post is seen.

Otherwise, weak surface front pushed south yesterday but lifting back north will result  in more southerly wind going into the afternoon as opposed to the ENE wind earlier this morning. The next disturbance is still well west of the state but will be pressing quickly east late today and over night.

Latest 4KM NAM, NAM, and HRRR models all show a variety of 'potential situations' in regard to   severe weather. The HRRR is consistent with implying one or two rotating storms to cross near 'Dead Central ' or 25 miles either side of line from Tampa Bay to Canaveral sometime from late afternoon through toward the 9pm time frame.

Another shows something similar with one rotating storm coming in near Tampa Bay and peaking out near Kissimmee / St Cloud that rapidly weakens as it moves east toward Brevard.

Granted, such 'radar depictions' (and associated parameters) can't be trusted in regard to specifics, but that they show them at all bears watching. 

The NAM shows potent bulk shear values from 850mb through the 500mb level and even some bulk shear down to the lowest 2000 ft as a result of directional  and speed shear in the wind fields as one goes up in height.  Such shear values I'd think would warrant at least a 'heads up' mode and have shown so in the image below.

Instability, on the other hand, as typical for this time of year will be poor, and as a result the chance of severe is not great enough to warrant more than a marginal risk of severe for mainly west central Florida.

For Blog Purposes will include all of Central more or less just in case of a surprise pop up storm . Though even these wind fields are showing on the NAM they might be over done, but if not, the risk might well be warranted and a subsequent outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at noon or later today might show that potential as well. 

OTHERWISE: Outside of the chance of rain and maybe an isolated storm or two, the bigger story will be the 'return to January' come Wednesday/Thursday.  

TUESDAY: Front to clear Central around early to mid morning with NW winds of around 15mph or so. Cold air won't be on the way quite yet; this boundary will mainly dry the air out, freshen things up, and leave things comfortable until sunset approaches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Secondary boundary to surge through heralding even drying air and colder air as well. 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Quite breezy with winds 18G28 with lows in mid-upper 40Fs to maybe low 50Fs out on the Barrier Islands. Highs on Wednesday will be hard pressed to reach 60F north of I4 and might barely reach it even further south; though warmer the further south one goes. 

THURSDAY: Wind will weaken somewhat going into Thursday with temperatures well below normal all day. Highs to read the lower- mid 60Fs so nicer.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Progressively warmer each day, with light wind and no rain chances.

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