"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 9, 2012

Pattern Change Beginning Today -Notable Tuesday

  Humidity Levels To Increase,
Along With Rain Chances Tuesday through Saturday 

TODAY: Although only minor changes at play today, the shift from what I've noticed year after year in the summer of the "two to three day pattern phase" is drawing nigh  to a new phase.  High pressure in the mid-levels across Central is slowly collapsing, at least in weakening of the wind fields and shifting/shrinking of the dry socket across Central.  Across the far South, a weak tropical wave (northern portions of it) accompanied by an upper level low is drifting west into the SE Gulf Today, which will permit deeper moisture to work slowly northward into or toward Ft Pierce to Vero on its back circulation.

 With weak steering once again, late day sea breeze interactions will make that moisture 'apparent" especially mid-afternoon north of Lake Okeechobee toward or west of those areas inland into Osceola County. Little change is noted further north from the past two days, although it is a bit sketchy on exactly where or even how the moisture distribution will be situated for late afternoon thunderstorm activity. That is relative to whether or not storms will exist in toward Western Volusia and up the Suwanee River Valley basin or not. For now we will include that area.

Overall, it appears that from late morning toward early evening the total  area of isolated shower and storm activity will be within these bounds (below).

With a pattern change, albeit subtle, comes question marks , the main one being will we go from isolated coverage of activity to a period of scattered coverage today? Far South to Southwest Florida appears to be the most likely location for said activity. Was tempted to shift the thunder chance a bit more toward the east across Orange and Osceola Counties  (from this noted below), but about the only impacts will be for those in the downtown toward and east of that Orlando zone, since in Osceola County that area is low-low populace that would be affected.

Last night there was one storm in the Orlando area (Dr. Phillips) which produced 3/4' to 1" sized hail, with winds that uprooted some apparently old, root rotted trees.  This location looks again to be a good candidate for a big one today (if not a bit east toward the immediate downtown area), as well as northward toward 'anywhere Lake County' and western Volusia (along I-4).  There could be a brief period of showers along the sea breeze front south or near Brevard along I-95, but it appears moisture will remain too scant for anything more than a shower along that boundary.  

TUESDAY/SATURDAY: The upper level low will move further into the Gulf, with moisture being drawn northward behind it with a light SSE-S surface to upper level flow for slow storm motions continuing. With higher dewpoint air now lurking off to the East of the state just beginning to show up, chances are storm/shower activity on Tuesday will begin earlier to the Southern Part and work north to Central by early afternoon.  Some guidance has been very consistent with a good coverage from South of or right near Melbourne right along or near the east coast, particularly toward Palm Bay / offshore/ and to the west down to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades and all surrounding areas with the lead moisture surge now fully at hand. 

Tuesday seems to be the odd man out though. From that point, would expect we will see cloud lines up along the intracoastals by mid-morning along with showers evolving in those areas along with some showers off shore that could move onshore south of Ft Pierce.  With the sea breezes full blown thunderstorm activity will increase by mid afternoon and work its way slowly toward the West to West North West with heaviest activity after 4:30pm just west of Orlando  toward Route 27 for areas like Clermont and Bok Tower. Route 27 looks to be a good candidate for several afternoons of big storm coverage, with isolated to scattered stronger storms from East of Cedar Key the whole way south to east of Ft. Meyers.  

Other moisture  surges very difficult to impossible to forecast this far out, could impact the immediate east coasters with showers beginning near sunrise from Brevard South. Point is, with greater moisture and earlier onset of activity, temperatures will be held down a bit (most notably inland) during the days, but the relative humidity will be increasing as well.

BEYOND: Hints that yet another pattern (major) change will be at play with activity shifting for a period toward the East Half of the state for the late afternoons come this time next week.  In line with that note and speak of patterns, do suspect each day beginning tomorrow through Friday will have its own little surprise packages in store, including the chance of weak waterspouts near to just offshore the east coast early in the day and/or some funnel clouds along intracoastal cloud lines from Brevard to Miami.

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