"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 1, 2010

Under A Fine Dividing Line For The Day

(Images: 9 a.m. radar and dewpoint temperatures. Little change in this for the day)

Very little change in forecast thinking from yesterday much to my surprise. Radar clearly falls in line with the dewpoint fields depicting where the most available low level moisture is available. What is surprising is the temperature gradient between the immediate coast and areas further west. Cape Canaveral only got down to 64 last night where as inland areas and the west coast were in the low-mid 50s. Only the immediate east coast from Cape Canaveral and points south were in the 60s overnight and early this morning.

TODAY: Winds will maintain a general easterly component to somewhat of a ENE-NE component the further west one goes. Due to extensive cloud coverage all day..the high will struggle to reach 70 degrees though. What about rain? Canaveral received a trace earlier...but measureable amounts will continue to be a teaser all day. It's quite possible that from Patrick AFB and points south measureable amounts will be received...but north of there? In general, where you see the rain now on radar (with the line drawn)...the rain will fall south of that line. Actually, there is a chance that areal coverage of the rain area will decrease by late morning/early afternoon. In the meantime, a weak inverted trough remains right along the east coast then out to sea right around Canaveral as a low begins to take shape somewhere NW of the western tip of Cuba and the NE edge of the Yucatan Peninsula. North of the depicted lines shown, expect totally cloudy skies with a high just below 70 degrees. South of the line expect off and light-moderate rain early then decreasing during the afternoon with a high in the mid-upper 70s (the further south one goes..the warmer it gets).

OVERNIGHT-MOST OF TUESDAY: The boundary will edge north as the surface low and inverted trough unify as a full bore quasi-stationary front which will reside just to the north of the current existing dividing line. A weak low pressure surface system will ride along the boundary greatly enhancing the chances for rain, especially after midnight. It is highly unlikely there will be any thunderstorms..although in the very heaviest of showers a remote in-cloud or cloud-cloud lightning flash might create an audible thunder roll. Temperatures tonight will be mild everywhere..even further inland tonight with lows in the low-mid 60s.

LATE TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The low that crosses the state will strengthen somewhat as it pulls out into the Atlantic and races up the eastern U.S. seaboard. This will likely create some additional crapola weather for folks in North Carolina and eastern Virginia in the form of frozen precipitation like snow/sleet/freezing rain. We'll let them worry about it...because for Florida it will remain dry. We will be under the influence of the southern branch jet stream expect periods of cirrus or cirrostratus clouds and very mild to cool temperatures ('cool' is all relative to what one considers 'cool'). I'll have a long sleeve shirt or light jacket though if you get my drift. Perhaps if we get some good sunshine in during Wednesday and Thursday afternoon it'll be "all shorts" conditions.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Not going into the finer details due to the fact that it's still a ways away..but I think we can suffice it to say that another and stronger storm system will be heading our way. As of this morning..timing would place the worst of the weather over Central Florida during peak heating of Friday afternoon. Thunder storms, some with some strong winds, still appear to be a very real possibility this time. All the weather (of which will be described in greater detail both intensity and timing wise) will be moving out by early Saturday.

LATE SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO FUN. Much cooler to down right cold, especially by Monday morning. Not freezing cold...but cold enough to remind us that it isn't spring yet...not by a long shot.

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