"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 30, 2010

Warm to Hot Day Along the East Coast Early, Strong Storms Inland

SYNOPSIS: High pressure that stretched across the state from Atlantic to the Gulf  for many days made its final break yesterday with a western High pressure center in the Gulf retrograding further off toward the Texas Coast (and eventually the South Central U.S) and the eastern High center well east of the Florida peninsula. With those two highs taken care of we can now focus our attention on the low-mid level trough which extends down the Eastern U.S. seashore to near the Georgia Coast. The trough seems has dug just south enough to merge with a thermally induced trough (which will form this afternoon) down the spine of the state during max heating of the day. With the two high pressure centers well enough off either coast and a thermal trough in place...this puts Central Florida in a position of neutrality but with an overall SW flow at the lowest levels prior to sea breeze development, with the trough having the greatest influence of the three late this afternoon through at least Saturday. As such, believe the west and east coast sea breezes will not have much problem with working inland this afternoon.
TODAY: Showers and thunderstorms should develop along the East Coast sea breeze along I-95 by early afternoon as it works inland. Before that time, though, the coast will be quite warm to hot due to the delayed sea breeze onset this morning. Low to even mid 90 temperatures might be common, even right on the immediate coast. By late afternoon as we work into the early evening hours the lower portions of the mid-level trough may exert a stronger influence from Vero Beach north along the east coast and that fact combined with outflow from inland storms could project the closest activity to drift back toward coastal communities especially a bit inland along the I-95 to US1 corridor.  Overall storm coverage will be limited from what it might normally be this time of year due to warm 700mb temperatures at or just above 10+C degrees. The end result may be only a trace of rainfall right along the coast...but areas from Ormond Beach to Melbourne Beach may actually hear thunder (at least). Another favored area would be near Lake Okeechobee...although, like yesterday, this area is somewhat questionable.
SATURDAY: Much the same conditions and locations will be favored for thunderstorms as today, although the immediate coast might not even see a sprinkle. Just exactly how far east any storm gets is contingent on any one storm's strength (thus vertical extent) at the time, of which is impossible to know when or where that will occur today. Otherwise, it will be the same favorable inland locations.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: At this point these days are somewhat 'up for grabs'...but at this point the models seem to be hedging for at least Sunday and probably Monday to end up much like Saturday...but with time gradually favoring more of the west side of the state late each afternoon, particularly on Monday. However, early afternoon activity would still be possible on these days if atmospheric conditions warrant for the US1-I95 corridor all along Florida's East Central area.  Elsewhere, the big news story might be news of a big heat build up over the lower Mississippi Valley region which will spread west and north as we work into the beginning of next week.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Believe eyes will start to focus on the Tropical Atlantic as a wave or eventually perhaps a tropical depression approaches Puerto Rico by the end of the work week. Thunderstorm wise, activity will focus more toward the area of the state west of the Florida Turnpike.

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