"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Chance of Strong-Pulse Severe Far Interior Later Today, Many Showers Elsewhere

Pileus Crowns The Head of a Majestic Storm on the 4th of July, 2014

TODAY: Will leave it brief but to say a few flies possible in the ointment today. Early activity SE Florida will work north and dwindle as outflow propagates up the east coast sea breeze front. West coast sea breeze to be slow to move far from the coast as will the east coast sea breeze until mid afternoon at least. There was what appeared to be a 'vorticity max' over South Central per visible satellite imagery earlier but the clouds that were 'swirling' in the animation associated with it are dissipating ; but if that was a vort max could see a greater cluster of storms further to the east of Central than earlier guidance was showing. 

The SPC Meso-scale analysis page was showing something there earlier. and as of 11AM shows it much smaller and located over North Brevard which is a bit too far east still but close appears it will lift more NE with time and gradually dissipate but still might have some residual effects this afternoon. 

Otherwise, today is much like yesterday in most regards. Temperature profile aloft is about the same and some severe sized hail was reported toward the West Central Side. The SW portion of the state again it seems will grab the lime light today but parts of Central (mainly South Central) could also get into the action. Other activity along the sea-breezes might produce some sound affects audible even at the coast or close to up and down locations along US-1 (even if the rain falls further west).

Steering is very slow, so most apparent motion will be induced by random anomalous propagation along pre-existing or storm induced outflow boundaries merging with lake breezes.

Activity could last into the night fall hours in the form of some isolated storms while lasting rainfall   might dampen out potential fire works as it drifts possibly toward and over the coast in a few areas but exactly where is impossible to say.

SUNDAY: Appears a continued chance of storms as well.

BEYOND: Not too much change but could be a slower day toward Tuesday or Wednesday time frame into Thursday before picking up again, perhaps if the GFS is correct. That is , to to be more specific, the GFS model shows a fairly active period toward the end of next week into next weekend with even the east coast locations getting storms moving off shore. Chances are it will flail around with the settings until it gets more fine tuned.

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