"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Small Risk of a Strong Storm (East Central) after 4pm - Warming Trend through Saturday

Late February Sunrise, Cape Canaveral

 An upper disturbance resulting in cloudy skies, rain and cool temperatures yesterday has pressed east out into the Atlantic, while another disturbance approaching from the Western Florida Panhandle has taken on the form of an MCS (mesoscale convective system) as it presses east. This is notable per the satellite loop included below.

With cleared skies becoming but partly cloudy most of all Central and South Florida into the early afternoon, daytime heating and sufficient low level destabilization will occur ahead of that feature. Low level wind is weak so a sea breeze will be able to set up in advance of it's approach. Temperatures aloft are rather cold and wind fields are sufficient for stronger storms, particularly after 4pm North Central Florida. 

There are numerous factors at play that  could result in enhanced storm activity today, but it much is contingent upon timing and how things work together. 

Should East Central remain with low cloud coverage and on the premise we might see enhanced forcing ahead of the feature with an outflow boundary related to it, low level convergence at the surface with cold air aloft coupled with increases in the 0-3KM helicity fields might provide the needed impetus for a strong storm or two.

Otherwise, general thunder with gusty winds in a near storms is possible. 
There will be many areas that will see no rain at all today as well , though.

Late morning satellite imagery shows the motion of the  'MCS'  type activity in the eastern - northern Gulf. It will be several hours before cloud coverage from this feature overspreads the state.

Peak time for 'potential activity 'will be from near Lake County eastward and into Orange/Osceola going into the 5pm or so. Otherwise, other activity might be able to form from near Miami-Dade northward toward Vero Beach earlier in the afternoon (enhanced perhaps by the Lake Okeechobee Breeze in Martin/St Lucie Counties).

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Continued warmer though cloud cover going into Friday (and perhaps another shot of rain) might hold down afternoon highs a bit on one or more days.

Saturday looks to be a warm and dry one though at this point.

SUNDAY: Cold front is slated to slide south of Central Florida by late morning, though this could change. Temperatures fall to just below normal for afternoon highs Sunday-Tuesday; with yet a much colder shot of 'winter like 'temperatures foreseen later in  the week. This could well change however, but the 'risk' is being advertised of almost a return to 'winter like weather' for 48 later next week. The GFS might have over-blown this though, as the CFSV2 model is not showing this more drastic temperature drop (at least not as yet). Not time to put away the winter gear altogether entirely just yet (at least not until we get the last week of March out of the way).

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