WEATHER MADE CLEAR FOR ALL TO HEAR

"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Clear Skies To Reign Supreme


Image: Another shot of the moon taken at 5:30am this morning

Not much to write about so this will be very brief. Would like to take a moment to thank all of you who have followed these ramblings from time to time. Feel free to contact me and let me know if there's something specific you'ld like to see in the blog...or if there's something particular about it that you like...than by all means feel free to let me know.

SYNOPISIS: Essentially what we have is a broad expanse of high pressure over the eastern Gulf building north and eastward...spreading the fair weather wealth to all of us east of the Mississippi by late Thursday. Florida in particular will be under the influence of this high for the next week...at least.

TODAY: Cool start with our low around 56-57 and a high around 73. Light west wind to start the day becomes light NNE for mid-afternoon under a clear sky. Winds under 10mph (for the next week).

TONIGHT: Not quite as cool with a low near 59 and light NE wind. Clear.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Nearly clear every day with temperatures right at or slightly above seasonal norms. Lows around 60 and highs approaching 80 right along the coast and low-mid 80s well inland. East wind less than 10mph becoming more southeast by Tuesday or Wednesday.

No sight of rain. Hopefully, we won't have to get in to fire forecasting!

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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

First Full Moon of Spring Heralds Easter's Arrival


Images: Full moon last night from two different view points color and grey scaled

SYNOPSIS: Easter is the first Sunday after the first full moon, after the first day of spring. And it's official. Just look at the moon we had last night!

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast this morning will continue to swing off to the northeast and up the coast of New England during the day creating "the pits" for weather up that way. Meanwhile, a broad area of strong high pressure is centered over the central GOM (Gulf of Mexico). This high will shift slowly east and continue to be our weather maker for the next...ugh....8-10 days (at least).

TODAY: Clear skies to start the day with a porch temperature of 56 degrees. PAFB was 55 last I looked and Melbourne was somewhere around 53 or 52. Winds were from the west at 10-15 mph. Remaining clear with maybe a few scraps of stratocumulus (negligible amounts)...and a high a tad cooler than yesterday at 73 degrees.

TONIGHT: Clear with a coastal low of 55. Closer to 49 west of the Indian River.

WEDNESDAY: Clear and high of 74.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear, low of 58.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Finally, we will have temps right on what is considered normal by Thursday...then above normal from Friday thru the weekend under mostly a clear sky, and that includes Easter Sunday. I'm not getting anywhere NEAR the pier if I can help it during the weekend. It was bad enough last Saturday with the reggae fest.

NEXT WEEK: Continued warmer than normal through Thursday. I'll precariously introduce the fact that chances of a quick shot of rain and maybe storms followed by a very brief but potent cool down enters the picture way out there by next weekend sometime...but that is too far off to hang a hat on by any means.

This pattern looks more and more like our April dry period. But it should be noted that past El Nino years have wielded a double edged sword later in our severe weather season (Feb/March). As noted by the NWS in Melbourne:I

"THE TWO MOST NOTABLE CASES WERE IN APRIL 1958/1966 WHEN STRONG
TORNADOES OCCURRED IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO ONE CANNOT SAY THAT THE
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS OVER YET."

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Monday, March 29, 2010

Mini-Storm Chase Yields Low End Results


Images: Radar indicating a tornado warned storm yesterday. Click on images to enlarge (they are better that way)

Went on a mini-storm chase yesterday to the Pineda Cswy. due to the persistent looking storm that was wielding a tornado warning. It looked too good on radar to resist. Made it through all of Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral without hitting a single red light so hopes were high that the gods had it for me to see something remarkable. I have no remarks unfortunately. But, I did see the first CGs (and at close range no less) for the first time in about 7 months ;-) And "Oh Yeah!"...thank goodness for Rain-X! It was pouring buckets.

SYNOPSIS: Cold front approaching the west coast this morning as weak PVA (positive vorticity advection) passes over head generating clouds and light to moderate rain patches. PVA will move out by 2pm as the cold front glides through on off to the ESE. High pressure will build in to the SE U.S. through Wednesday and be directly overhead by then...then remain nearly station very close to Florida for an extended period. As a result, storm systems will have a hard time penetrating the peninsular portion of the state for quite some time as it holds stubbornly fast.

TODAY: Off and on rains appear that they will last up until around 1-2pm. Maybe a rumble of thunder but nothing more than that. We received 3.25" inches of rain from this event up to the time of this posting. Sky to remain cloudy after rains end but should start to break up around sunset. If so, we could have a very scenic sunset worthy of photo-ing.

TONIGHT: Clearing sky with a west wind of 10-15mph. Low into Tuesday morning of 56 degrees.

TUESDAY: Clear with a W-WNW of 12-20 mph. High of 72

THE REST OF THE WEEK: Clear with gradual warming to near normal temperatures by the weekend.

EASTER SUNDAY: A few clouds with a low around 65 and high near 82.

FURTHER EXTENDED: No rain in site and continued on the warmer rather than cooler side. YAWN!

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Sunday, March 28, 2010

Severe Weather Likely In Some Spots Late Today AND Tonight


Image: Forecast for tonight showing two systems that will affect East Central Florida today and tonight

Some interesting weather is in store for much of Peninsular Florida as two distinct disturbances will hit the area. Both will have the potential to produce severe weather across mainly the central portion of the state in the form of hail, wind, and maybe even a tornado. There will likely be some flooding rains as well anywhere from Jacksonville to Lake Okeechobee, primarily along the Eastern 3/4s of the state. Storms to begin first along the west wide near the Big Bend by 2pm.

SYNOPSIS: A trough of low pressure will push across the Deep South during the next 12-36 hours. Embedded mid and upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and traverse across mainly the north central to south central portions of the state. Accompanying these disturbances will be some very 'disturbed' weather! It's advised that all residents in this area remain abreast of local weather conditions any time after 2:30pm today as conditions will initially change very rapidly as the leading edge of impacting weather reaches the area.

FIRST HALF OF TODAY: Initially high clouds will cross the state in association with the southern branch jet stream. Wind will be ESE-SE gradually veering to the south during the course of the day. Winds will blow at about 12-20 mph throughout the day..even in the early morning. Clouds will begin to increase by mid morning and lower levels clouds formulate with heating of the day. High temperature will be a little warmer than yesterday's local high of only 73 to about 76 today. 

BY 2:00pm TODAY: Some discrete storm cells could form just about anywhere from Lake Okeechobee north to Ocala. These will race off to the NNE at about 25-30mph. Probably only contain some lighting at worst..although if a strong one gets well rooted in the boundary layer small hail would not be out of the question.

AFTER 4:00pm TODAY: By this time the extreme western side of the state and further north will already be under the gun as the first of two systems moves in (in the form of an 850mb vort max in combo with CAPEs approaching 1000 and semi-decent low level instability with a cap that will be weakening by the minute. First it will be Hernando, Pasco, and Lake Counties. Then as things get even closer to the center of the state it will be Orange, Volusia, and Seminole...and eventually mainly the north 1/3 of Brevard County. We will likely be in a severe thunderstorm watch or maybe even a tornado watch by 4pm as well, if not earlier. Keep an eye to the sky to the west or SW. Also note, that ahead of this organized system, smaller discrete storm cells could begin to catch the eye of the radar scope even earlier - say about 2pm as noted above. By 2pm also the sky cover will increase significantly becoming over cast at the mid levels. If this does indeed occur then the storms will become difficult to detect approaching other than an unusually dark appearance approaching from a westerly component direction. Early rain showers will be easier to spot. Expect the worst of weather to hit Brevard County...mainly from Cape Canaveral and points north to Daytona in the 7-8pm time frame and then move out by 9pm altogher.

We might see a lull in the action...with no rain at all for a while. But don't be fooled, yet a bigger system will be on the approach well after dark.

AFTER 11pm TONIGHT: The second system will be on the approach in the form of a 500mb vorticity max with greater jet stream winds aloft. However, instability will be much less than that we will experience from event number 1. Believe the main threat from this one will be strong surface winds, although a brief tornado will not be out of the question. It will approach from the west and impact all of Brevard County initially sometime in the 1-2AM time frame. After the initial impact, it will be followed by a prolonged period of moderate rain which could last well up to sunrise with rain totals approaching nearly 3-4 inches! Thus, flooding of some commonly known problem areas across the state will become the story of the day across all of Central and eventually south central Florida. Temperatures during this time will be in the mid 60s and winds will be SW-WSW at about 10-15mph outside of the heavier showers. The thunderstorm threat though should wane after 8AM.

FIRST HALF OF MONDAY: See above. Morning low will be around 64 degrees with a WSW wind and continued elevated rain chances. It currently appears that the rain will end, at around 12PM -2PM in abrupt fashion. 

SECOND HALF OF MONDAY: Rain to abate but continued cloudy until nearly sunset. Winds will be west at 10-15mph with a high around 70 degrees. The cold front associated with the trough will pass through after sunset...heralding....

TUESDAY: ....clearing skies with a continued west wind and a low of 55 degrees. By mid morning the sky will be clear with a high of about 71. West wind of 10mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clear with a low around 56 degrees. High around 73.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Mostly clear to start the period with scattered clouds by the weekend. Temperatures moderating to what one would consider normal for this time of year. No rain chance.

SUNDAY AND POINTS ON: We might start to be affected by another system sometime around late Monday or Tuesday...but that is too far out for any further speculation.

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Saturday, March 27, 2010

Here Today -- Gone Tomorrow, Late


Image: Forecast depiction of big rain totals impacting East Central Florida by Monday at 2am in the morning

SYNOPSIS: High pressure centered along the U.S. East Coast over New York state is ridging south along the entire U.S. east coast.  Meanwhile, a surface low is centered just south of Medicine Lodge (P28), Kansas along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. The surface ridge and low will shift east during the course of the next  24-48 hours...putting Florida under the influence of the low and appendent trough rather than the ridge axis as we will  experience today.

TODAY: Clockwise circulation around the surface high over New York will place Florida under a N-NE wind for the first half of the day at about 8-12mph by 10a.m.. After a cool start of 63 degrees from my vantage point we will warm nicely into the mid-upper 70s today. As has been the case of late, the coolest temperatures in the state today will be along and east of A1A where the cooling effect of the ocean water (and subsequent air just above that water) will be felt. Expect the high east of A1A to be around 73-75 whereas west of the Banana River 76-79 is much more likely. It was previously thought that we could get a little windy today ...but based on the early morning sounding and the weaker pressure gradient between our two systems...I don't believe it will get as breezy as the official forecast was making it seem it would be yesterday. Sky will be mostly clear with only a few sparse, thin high clouds from time to time. In other words, better sky conditions than yesterday but a little cooler by about 5-7 degrees across the boards.

TONIGHT: Not as cool as last night/this morning with a low closer to 67 degrees and a few clouds. Very light east wind at 5mph or less.

SUNDAY: Very pleasant to start the day. Wind will shift to the SE by mid morning and after a 67 degree start to the day we will warm to around 78 degrees. During the course of the day winds will become more southerly and pick up to the 12-19 mph range as clouds increase. First thin high clouds, then some lower cumulus clouds will sprout. By mid- late afternoon expect a plethora of various clouds at all levels to formulate and increase in density and coverage as the first vestiges of what's to come moves onto the west coast from Sarasota and points north. I wouldn't want to be on the beach anytime after 4:30pm as things will rapidly start to get a bit shaky with thunderstorms possibly erupting to the west and heading this way. I won't be surprised if we end up in a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch Box prior to 4-5pm tomorrow!   

Believe that a prefrontal trough will move into Florida and cross the state with discrete cells prior to it's arrival starting to pop by 4pm. The actual prefrontal trough could harbor itself as a broken squall line with embedded bowing segments...and potentially supercell thunderstorms. We actually could have two convective (thunderstorm) episodes. The first would be diurnally induced storms given we will have some CAPE and decent lapse rates under basically a zero CAP. Strong upper level winds along with approaching low level jet will produce enough lift to generate these storms; however, these initial storms could weaken significantly as they approach the coast (mainly east of US 1) due to the cooler air (from the ocean) which often saps them of strength..but there will also be  plentiful low and mid level moisture values. So some of these might be able to sustain themselves to at least be a big wind and lightning threat along the immediate coast as well. Then the second round as the prefrontal trough moves in accompanied by a low level jet. This will be of even greater consequence/threat. The time frame for this potential and more likely second round is between 6-8pm. I'd be keeping abreast of the weather around here in any case any time after 3:30pm tomorrow !!

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: Rain! Thunderstorms could be ongoing until the 1-2am time frame..but eventual stabilization of the atmosphere will yield to mostly just rainy conditions for all of Monday with a high in the mid 70s if we're lucky..probably more likely low 70s....prior to cold frontal passage. It currently appears that the front will pass through quite ajarringly, is that a word (?) by 7-8pm...essentially right at or before sunset. Skies will clear fairly rapidly but not during the daylight time frame.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies and cooler with a low by Tuesday morning of 55 degrees.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Back to somewhat cooler conditions for these days and dry. Skies mostly clear with sparsely scattered clouds. Low along the coast in the mid 50s for that brisk morning walk and a high both days in the lower 70s.

FURTHER OUT: Gradual warming trend and dry. No rain in the foreseeable future..at least not for a good 10 days.

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Friday, March 26, 2010

3 Dry Days - 1 Wet Day - More Dry Days

(Image: Here I am running for cover in Garden City, Kansas. Toto was no where to be seen)

SYNOPSIS: Pre-frontal boundary that passed through around midnight, instigating a severe thunderstorm warning for most of Central Brevard County, has weakened and is well south of the area. A cold front extending south into the East-Central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is moving rapidly east and will be nearly overhead around the 2-3pm time frame. DLM (Deep Layer Mean) ridge of High Pressure to dominate the local area by late afternoon through mid-day Sunday.

TODAY: Temperature at 7a.m. a sticky 68 degrees under cloudy skies with a light WSW wind. Expect that with some stronger sun light that the clouds will begin to break up in the 10-11am time frame and at the same time the wind will pick up out of the west at 15-20 mph. Any additional rain to fall today will be ahead of the actual surface front, but south of Brevard County. More like across the east half of the state from West  Palm Beach and points south. Given (hoping) the clouds to clear for the most part NLT (no later than noon) we could easily get up to 79 degrees today (plus or minus 2 degrees). Would be nice to actually hit the big 8-0 though!  Approaching, passive in nature, cold front will be overhead by 2-3pm..and pass on east and south through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Wind will shift to west or WNW and lighten up.

TONIGHT: Seasonably normal low around 58-60 right along the coast and a few degrees cooler west of the Indian River. Stacked DLM Ridge extending the whole way up to Canada will move over head and be our weather maker for all of Saturday and the earlier portion of Sunday as yet another in the progressive train of storm systems enters the southeast U.S.

SATURDAY: As stated above, seasonably normal temperature wise to start the day with just a few scattered clouds and a light north wind. Wind will quickly swing around to the NE and eventually E or even ESE by sunset and blow in at a 12-18 mph pace. Unfortunately, such a wind direction / speed will harbor entrance of that seemingly "never going to go away" cool ocean air that's residing above the even cooler ocean waters. Thus, even though the morning will be normal temperature wise, the afternoon will continue its pace of being 5-8 degrees below normal.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AFTERNOON: ESE-SE wind to start the day at 7mph to pick up to the 9-14mph range by 10-11am with variably partly cloudy sky conditions. Low right at or slightly below 60 degrees along the coast and a notch cooler west of the Indian River once again. A plethora of cloud types at varying heights to paint the sky throughout the day...but increasing significantly by early afternoon. Probably not so great a day for the beach, but no detriment to other outside activities. Surface winds could get a little hearty though over the open Atlantic and River(s) waters...creating less than ideal boating or related activities. High in the low-mid 70s close to the coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95.

SUNDAY NIGHT/ALL OF MONDAY: Thickening cloud cover and an approaching frontal system might again yield some significantly strong thunderstorms with the primary threat being wind. It appears that a squall line of sorts could formulate which would harbor some healthy downdrafts  in the heaviest of rain laden sectors of the line. Lightning is a given should such a formation take hold. Remember the DLM Ridge I pointed out that will affect us Saturday? Being as it is a DLM Ridge..it won't be too eager to move out..but will only edge slightly east into a position in the Western Atlantic. It will hold its ground for all of Monday..which will prevent what will remain of the convective boundary to move out any time soon. As a result, things could act like a clogged up sink Monday..with moisture backing up over the area resulting in continued elevated rain chances with maybe even some embedded thunder. But most likely just rain. Temperatures as a result of the rain will be right around 70 degrees but rise a few degrees during non-rainy times.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Gradual clearing as the DLM ridge releases it''s grip and scoots yet further east and out of the picture..thus declogging the 'sink" (Florida) and allowing the trough to pass right on along as well, taking the rains with it. Another ridge to building north from the south and hold tight for quite some time to come.

We will be hearing about all kinds of severe weather occurring in the Plains and the Dixie region, particularly in N. Louisiana, most of Mississippi, S. Arkansas, and western Alabama a few times next week. But the ridge that will build over the area could very well continue to hold fast. As a result, those storm systems will be forced to ride up and over the ridge...that is..into the Great Lakes/S. Canada. We could very well remain dry initially with temperatures right at seasonal norms for low AND high readings for a change...for the first time in a very very long time. Finally!

For now...be on the look out during the very wee hours of Monday up through sunrise. If anything active is going to happen that will be the time, as inconvenient as it is. No rest for the weather weary! At least not in the middle of the night.

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Slightly Warmer Today - Chance of Rain Tonight

Image: A lizard outside my door at 4am clings for dear life. He got away just fine.

On this day in Central Florida weather history the worst hailstorm in Florida history struck the
Orlando area just three weeks after another one of the worst hailstorms in Central Florida history ( 3/6/92). Hail up to baseball size hit the University of Central Florida (UCF) and the vast greenhouse areas in western Orange County, crippling the nursery industry in the area. Damage was estimated at 60 - 100 million dollars. Smaller hail also fell in North Florida and as far South as Miami. Thunderstorm winds destroyed a citrus packing plant near Groveland in Lake County, injuring eight. The largest official hailstone recorded was 3.00" at the UCF - the third largest Florida hailstone on record, but residents reported larger hail that melted. While it will remain debatable whether the largest hail of all time fell in this storm (that distinction - 4 1/2"- belongs with the 3/30/95 Polk Co. hailstorm), it was clearly the costliest hailstorm in Florida history.

SYNOPSIS: Frontal system is taking shape over the Deep South this morning which trails into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure east of Florida which passed overhead yesterday will continue an eastward push into the Atlantic as the front approaches the state later today and into tonight.

TODAY: It got down to 65 degrees on the porch this morning. Very pleasant! Lots of thin high clouds to start the day will gradually thicken as we work into the post-noon hours. Mid level clouds will also begin to enter the picture. Wind will be initially ESE-SE at about 5 mph and gradually veer to southerly and eventually SSW by sunset increasing to 10-15mph . Highs today will be around 76 along the coast and a few degrees even warmer west of US1. It may actual warm right along the coast as the wind makes the gradual shift to the SSW late in the afternoon near sunset.

TONIGHT: By sunset it will be completely cloudy with a SSW-SW wind around 10-15mph. By sunset rain showers and thunderstorms will be approaching the west coast from Sarasota northward. These will shift eastward across the state and begin to affect Brevard by 9pm. Initially as very light right in a few scattered locations, but increasing in coverage and intensity through the evening and over night. Thunder is very possible...and some storms might even be somewhat strong. Small hail in fact is not out of the question with the strongest of storms, but most likely any impact from the strong ones will be wind gusts. That's not saying that any one location..or any location for that matter will be hit by one of these, but the possibility for one to generate will exist.

FRIDAY: With a low in the low-mid 60s it could very well be raining at sunrise, or if not raining completely cloudy. The clouds won't be in a big hurry to move out...at least not until noon time or shortly thereafter. Temperatures could then rise into the upper 70s area wide if we can eke out some sunshine early enough.

SATURDAY: ...this day continues to be the primo day of the week. A little cooler with the 'by the skin of our teeth' passage of the frontal barrier passing on. Widely scattered clouds with a high in the mid 70s...but a few degrees cooler right along A1A as winds will regain their onshore component. All in all, a very nice day with no rain once the morning dribbles move out (assuming there will be some).

SUNDAY: Nice to start the day...but the next storm system will be approaching. The first half of the day...if not into late afternoon will be stellar and a little warmer than Saturday. But that next storm system will generate a repeat performance of what tonight's system will do...maybe even a little more active by mid evening.

MONDAY: "Waiter, what's that fly doing in my soup?" Waiter: "Looks like the back stroke to me". And yes in deedy...there will be a fly in the ointment for this forecast time frame as models are widely divergent as to what will become of the system. We have two options...everything moves out by noon or it hangs around until Tuesday morning. Let's just go with a middle of the road option (which I REALLY hate to do),...and have the rain chance dwindle to zero by late afternoon. In any case, Monday looks to be far from stellar - - much unlike Saturday.

TUESDAY: By noon Tuesday the slate will be whipped clean and we'll be on the road toward a prolonged dry period with comfortable temperatures right around the climatological norm. Enjoy. We might not see rain again for nearly a week...if even then!

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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Temperatures To Approach Above Normal - Finally

Photo: One of two camcorder mounts ordered through Amazon.com. Shown is a window mount for the car. The other one I order is a combo window/dash mount. These will be used for storm video/photographs

SYNOPSIS: High pressure directly overhead this morning to shift east later today as a cold frontal system takes shape over Kansas, Oklahoma, and N. Texas this afternoon. This system will shift east to northeast through week's end, bringing a frontal boundary into our area late Friday. In the meantime, temperatures will continue to moderate and warm to, if not above, seasonal norms by Friday afternoon.

TODAY: Calm, clear start to the day with a sunrise temperature of 57 degrees. Today will be a ditto copy of yesterday as high pressure passes across the state. Just a few "sparsed"  cirrus clouds for most of the day but increasing by mid-late afternoon as a storm system takes shape over the southern and central Plains region. This system could bring some severe weather to parts of S. Oklahoma and N. Texas today. Lucky dogs! Probably no tornadoes but big hail is surely in the offing for them. Winds will be generally light and variable but eventually take on an easterly component at less than 7 mph by mid-day.

TONIGHT: Increasing high clouds as the high pressure moves out to the Atlantic and the frontal system in the Plains creeps closer. Very light east wind at less than 5mph along with some cloud cover will prevent the low temperature from falling below 60 degrees (which is above climatological norms). We'll shoot for a low of 64.

THURSDAY: Diffusely cloudy with mainly high clouds (filtered sunlight in other words) with a light southeast wind of less than 10mph. High temperature around 76 degrees during the hours of 3-4:30pm. Probably a few degrees cooler within 3 blocks of the shoreline though.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a low around 69...can you believe that!? Light southeast wind of 5 mph or less.

FRIDAY: Overcast with high and mid level clouds and a high of..get this..80 degrees. FINALLY. Can we do it? Well, we'll have a southwest wind (no sea breeze)...so why not? Let's do it! However, the chance of rain will come into the picture by afternoon. Let's say there's a pretty good chance of rain somewhere within Brevard County and a high likelihood it will rain somewhere across East Central Florida during the mid-late afternoon. Maybe even some thunder.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain chances wane considerably with skies clearing and a low of around 67. Light west wind.

SATURDAY: As stated yesterday, a stellar day with a high around 75 degrees with a light but somewhat cool feeling wind along the ocean of 10mph. Temperatures right along the shoreline will be a few degrees lower. High pressure will again be passing over but will rapidly be yielding to the next system that will be already approaching.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: The next system, and last one for quite some time, will approach during the latter portions of the weekend. Sunday will start out about the same as Saturday morning with almost clear skies and a low around 66 degrees but warming to about 79 by afternoon. It now looks like the next system won't affect us rain wise until Monday...so we're good for the weekend as far as rain chances go.

MONDAY - SEEMINGLY FOREVER: No storm systems in the making for us with lows continuing in the 65 degree window and highs hovering around 75 plus or minus 2 degrees for a number of days. Possibly getting even warmer though as we get into mid-week (next week). No sig rain chances noted at this time.

So, from the looks of it...we might not be getting into the 50s at all anymore this early spring season. We can officially pack away the coats but I might hold on to the sweater being the cool-weather-wimp that I am.  Like I say..."if it ain't 85 degrees, it ain't warm enough!"

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

GooFuS or ECMWF - Mix for "Storm Cookie Batter"


Images: Current surface plot, morning temperatures depiction, forecast plot for Wednesday morning

SYNOPSIS: Cloudy morning across Central Florida as a remnant, and mostly dissipated, cool front peters out across the center part of the state. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will build east and be situated directly overhead by sunrise Wednesday (as shown in the forecast image - the 3rd image). High pressure will continue to shift east and into the Atlantic during the day Wednesday as a cold frontal system moves across the Central Plains and into the Tennessee Valley Thursday. This system will be in our neck of the woods Friday with yet another one on it's heels either later Sunday or Monday. Timing of the second front, or even just how long it will impact us rain wise is the biggest fly in the ointment for this blog post.

TODAY: Cloudiness this morning will both erode from the west and dissipate overhead with heating of the day and as anticyclonic flow associated with high pressure pressing across the Gulf this morning begins to directly impact the Central portion of the state. Expect this afternoon to be dictated by clearing skies with predominantly partly cloudy to nearly clear skies by later in the day with a high temperature around 70 degrees. WNW-NW winds around 10-15mph. No rain.

TONIGHT: Clear and calm as high pressure becomes situated directly overhead. This primo radiational cooling 'situ' willl yield a somewhat cooler morning, but we will quickly recover within 1/2 hour after sunrise to what has become standard temperatures lately for the post sunrise hour or two.

TOMORROW: The high pressure will continue its eastward trek and move into the Atlantic. Winds to become easterly by late morning at 5-8 mph under continued mostly clear skies. There is a chance of some patches of stratocumulus clouds along the coast during the late morning to post noon time, but for the most part it should be nearly clear. After a morning low of 56 along the coast and much cooler inland afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low 70s area wide. Folks east of A1A, we're talking the very VERY immediate coast, might again see the temperature drop a notch or two once the easterly component winds ensue and advect air above the very cool ocean waters into that area....generating a temperature of 69 or 70 degrees.

TOMORROW NIGHT-THURSDAY: High pressure to continue into the Atlantic with winds originally easterly becoming SSE to south late in the period. Low Wednesday night around 62 along the coast and in the upper 50s inland. High Thursday in the low 70s along the immediate coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95 and toward the west coast. More assuredly warmer the further south and west one goes, but not significantly so. Skies will have scattered clouds of little impact.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: Our slight warming trend continues as we finally approach what one would consider seasonable norms for the third week in March! For Cocoa Beach that would be a low of 58 degrees and a high of 78. Actually, our lows will be warmer than normal, but our highs will struggle to reach the required magnitude. Sigh. But not so bad.

After this past winter I think I've become a little 'thick skinned' and am willing to tolerate the last vestiges of cool air that Mother Nature can brew up. This, along with knowing that not all too soon dreams of wanting some cool air to move in will be in the making, makes tolerating the below normal highs a little easier to cope with for the time being.

BY FRIDAY, the first of two systems will be moving in. The day will dawn with a low around 66 degrees. Can you believe it?! And a high of 77 along the coast and closer to 80 well away from the coast (west of I-95). Winds will be SW on Friday with initially cloudy conditions due to a sufficient coating of high cirrostratus clouds in preamble to the storm system that will be moving across Dixie. A cold front emanating from this system will move into the area by late afternoon, but most of the energy associated with it will be too far north to have much of an impact other than a pretty decent chance of some rain showers and cloudy skies.

SATURDAY: This will be the most PRIMO day of the week! God grants small favors :-). And he picked the weekend to do so. Hmmm...on second thought...what with all the spring breakers around (say no more if you know what I mean). High in the mid-upper 70s and low in the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. But be forewarned, a more potent system will be lurking just beyond the horizon, and may come in with a good punch by weekend's end!

SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME: Timing on yet the next system is a little sketchy still as of the time of this writing. One model, the GooFuS (GFS) is indicating thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon into the evening, whereas the European Model (ECMWF) is holding off on the front until Monday. Actually, I'm seeing that a nice blend of cookie batter might be the best option. A little GooFuS here...some ECMWF..and a dash of vanilla may yield some nice "Thunderstorm Cookies" for both late Sunday and early Monday. SWEET!! Regardless of the outcome, it will all be over by Tuesday with then ......

TUESDAY ON:.....with then.....a prolonged dry period with temperatures warming to above normal. Only time will tell (we're only talking a day or two)...as to what will occur late in the weekend. But we have plenty of that (time) to batten the hatches.

I'm very intrigued to see what is going to happen, particularly, Sunday afternoon and evening! And after that...will it really be warm 'forever on'?

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Monday, March 22, 2010

Temperatures to Approach "Normal" By Week's End


Photo: Islamorada last weekend (March 21st , first day of spring)

Just returned from a storm chaser get together held on Islamorada this past weekend. What a blast it was to meet up with folks I've never met in person but have written to for over 10 years. It was nice to see others somewhere other than in Kansas too !

SYNOPSIS: Somewhat benign weather pattern setting up for most of the week. Stacked low pressure over Kentucky will move ENE and be located off the New England coast by late Wednesday. Zonal (westerly) flow at all levels will be in place across all of the Southeast U.S. as it moves on out. Weak impulses will be embedded in the flow but be of little consequence other than create periods of cloudiness. Temperatures to remain a notch below normal.

TODAY: Periodic cloudiness with a high near 70 degrees...contingent upon when/where the clouds will be at peak heating time. If there's too many clouds in the 1-3pm time frame we'll remain around 68 degrees. Westerly winds picking up by 11am at 15-20mph.

TONIGHT: Party cloudy with a west wind around 5-10mph. Low around 58 degrees along the coast and a few degrees cooler inland.

TUESDAY: Fewer clouds, west wind around 10-15mph, and a high near 72 degrees.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FIRST HALF FRIDAY: Gradual warming throughout this time frame under mostly partly cloudy skies. By Wednesday we could see a very light afternoon easterly component to the wind which will harbor high temperatures east of the Banana River in the low 70s upon onset. West of the Banana River will experience highs in the mid-upper 70s..approaching 80 well inland by Friday. By Thursday we might very well lose the sea breeze along the coast so that this location will also see highs around 78 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Too soon to pin point a time frame, but for now suffice it to say this is currently depicted as the period when our next chance of rain/thunderstorms enters the picture. We need to get it as much as we can (the rain) because we'll soon be entering the dry times of April prior to the thunderstorm season which starts the first week of June. Temperatures will be right around climatological norms for the first time this year! FINALLY.Lows in the mid 60s and highs in the upper 70s..around 80 further inland. We might see a good, short term rain event setting up...so things bear watching!

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Friday, March 19, 2010

Chamber of Commerce Weekend (For the Most Part)



SPRING!!

Chamber of Commerce Weather: Any type of sunny weather that would attract visitors to your city. In Atlanta, that means 65 degrees and sunny on a Saturday in February.

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure off the SE U.S. Coast will drift NE and be replaced by high pressure building eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will drift directly overhead this evening and be situated just east of the state by Saturday morning as a developing cold front moves into the Dixie region by late in the day. This front will approach peninsular Florida late Sunday. As a result. a beautiful but only slightly cool weekend is in store for East Central Florida.

TODAY: Cool start to the morning with a temperature in the low-mid 50s will warm to 70 or a notch above that today. As stated yesterday, right along the beach side the temperature may initially rise to this level but drop to about 68 degrees once a very light c-breeze develops by mid-afternoon. The sky will be partly cloudy but mostly sunny.

TONIGHT: Clear with a low in the mid 50s.

SATURDAY: Stellar with a high in the low-mid 70s area wide. The Chamber of Commerce has come to town. Winds will be light from the SE-SSE at less than 10mph area wide

SUNDAY: A warmer morning with a low around 63 degrees. The day will dawn sunny and clear with a few patches of very light fog.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The warmest day we've had this year thus far with a high in the mid-upper 70s. Some inland locations will be flirting with 80 degrees. Increasing high and low level clouds by mid-afternoon as the cold front approaches.

SUNDAY EVENING: We will start to directly experience impacts of the approaching front as it moves ever so closer. Increasing clouds at all levels. We will also introduce a chance of rain by mid-late evening. Maybe even a rumble of thunder, but as of now that chance looks minimal.

MONDAY: Will dawn cloudy and possibly rainy. But not to fret, the rain will move out by late morning and the sky will slowly start to clear. Even though a front will have gone through we won't get cold. In fact, by Wednesday temperatures will rebound back into the mid-upper 70s once again. No big rains, or any for that matter, are on the horizon after they end Monday morning.

The next post to this blog will be made Monday morning as I will be out of pocket this weekend. Have a great first weekend of early spring type weather!

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Yet Another Unseasonably Cool Day on Tap

Image: What would you like in your coffee?

Synopsis: Low pressure continues approximately 100 ENE of Daytona. Wrap around moisture and associated clouds continue to affect the north half of the state. High pressure in the extreme western Gulf of Mexico is building slowly eastward. The high will pass over head during the weekend and be followed by a cold front that will be impacting the Dixie region while we bask in pleasant conditions.,

TODAY: The weather in Brevard today will be affected mainly by circulation around a low pressure system over the extreme Southeast U.S. The surface low is east of Daytona but the low at a higher level of the atmosphere is right along the Georgia coast. It is circulation around that low that will affect our sky conditions today, whereas the surface low will affect the wind. Mostly cloudy with occasional periods of partly cloudy skies all day with a west wind of 10-15mph. The south half of the county will see signifcantly more sun though. Despite what I'm hearing on TV I do not believe it will rain today, unless we receive a trace amount sometime late in the afternoon. Any rain though will essentially be negligible. The high temperature today will continue below what we'd normally expect this time of year with a high of only 65 degrees due to the lack of solid, prolonged sunlight during max heating as well as reinforcing cool air filtering in on the heals of the west wind circulating around the mid-level low along the Georgia coast.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing after dark with a low near 55 degrees and a NW wind of 5-10 mph

FRIDAY: Continued somewhat cool but with much better sky conditions and a lighter wind. No chance of rain. NW wind gradually veering to north by late in the day at 10mph under partly cloudy skies. The high temperature will be a tad warmer since we should see more sun at around the 68-70 degree notch on 'ole mercury'.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Near calm wind and clear with occasional clouds splots and a low near 58 degrees.

SATURDAY: Now comes the fun part! No change from what was written yesterday. A few clouds with nearly calm winds, but a light ocean puff from the E-ENE at 5-8mph during the afternoon and a high near 72 degrees. Away from the immediate beaches it could easily be a couple of degrees warmer. (Darned cold ocean water)

SATURDAY NIGHT: Continuing the gradual warming trend we'll have a low around 63.
SUNDAY: Light morning winds will yield to SE winds which will veer during the day to become Southwesterly by mid afternoon. Noticeably warmer with a high near 77 degrees. Few clouds to start the day but gradually an increase of at first high clouds by mid day. Clouds increasing significantly in the last hours before sunset as the Dixie front approaches.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY: Cold front knocking at the door. WSW and cloudy but not cold. Low Sunday night near 64 degrees and a high on Monday near 72 with a very infinitesimally small chance of a sprinkle.

The front will be in the region through mid-day Tuesday after which it will move on and skies will clear nicely. All in all next week, at least for the first half, it appears that it will be warmer than this week has been...and by Wednesday we could have temperatures almost right on the :"average for this time of year' mark.

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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

(Hurricane) Erin Go Braugh


Speakers of the Irish language assume that the phrase is a corruption of the Irish Éire go Brách or Éireann go Brách]. The term brách is equivalent to "eternity" or "end of time", meaning the phrase may be translated literally as "Ireland until eternity" or "Ireland until the end (of time)". The form Éireann go Bráth or Éire go Bráth is also used in Irish and means the same thing.

The shamrock is a symbol of Ireland. It is a three-leafed old white clover. It is sometimes of the variety Trifolium repens (a white clover, known in Irish as seamair bhán) but today usually Trifolium dubium (a lesser clover, Irish: seamair bhuí).
The diminutive version of the Irish word for "clover" ("seamair") is "seamróg", which was anglicised as "shamrock", representing a close approximation of the original Irish pronunciation. However, other three-leafed plants — such as black medic (Medicago lupulina), red clover (Trifolium pratense), and wood-sorrel (genus Oxalis) — are sometimes designated as shamrocks. The shamrock was traditionally used for its medical properties and was a popular motif in Victorian times.

TODAY: Weak low pressure will form off the coast of Daytona Beach today in response to some upper level energy (vorticity) passing over at the 500mb (20K Ft) level. Dry air is wrapping around and shooting in at the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. A few trace amounts of rain may be reported, but for the most part it will be dry. The exception might be early this evening where a continued additional chance of trace amounts are possible for coastal N. Brevard and Volusia counties. High temperatures will be down played today due to sky cover, with a high near 63 degrees. Partial clearing by late afternoon or early evening as the drier air has a more pronounced influence over the area, but we're not quite out of the woods just yet.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with a 12 mph west wind and a low near 55 along the coast and closer to 50 west of the Indian River.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: Variable cloudiness with a light westerly component wind continuing and a high near 68 degrees . Low Friday morning similar to Thursday morning's temperature. A very low end chance of a trace amount rain shower along the immediate coast of Brevard and Volusia counties continuing. The low off the coast of Daytona will be on the way out to sea by the end of Friday and the skies will be begin to clear more affirmatively/noticeably.
SATURDAY/MOST OF SUNDAY: Great weekend in store! Perhaps the best one we've had yet this year! Lows will be around 63 degrees and the high Saturday will be near 74; Sunday closer to 77 with increasing clouds during the afternoon and a noticeable SW wind of 15mph. All that in prelude to an approaching cold front. Possibly a few degrees cooler along the very immediate beach side Saturday if a very light sea breeze develops. However, impacts will be minimal and restricted to a few blocks of the beach at most on Saturday.

LATE SUNDAY: Again, increasing cloudiness by late in the day with a chance of rain at or shortly after sunset; however, rainfall totals at this time look as if they won't be much more than a trace.

MONDAY: A cold front will have passed through by Monday morning followed by NW winds of 15mph. Afternoon highs won't be greatly impacted, but will be about 5 degrees below normal. More to come on this period as time dries nigh.

Go green!


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Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Calming Winds and Clouding Skies




Images: Clouds make a signature of the southern branch jet stream; several small short waves to impact the area into next week

I don't know about you, but it seems more to me like we are in the early fringes of spring rather than the last vestiges of winter. ..or maybe it's just wishful thinking. I usually think of spring arriving in phases:. The unofficial seven phases of spring are as follows:
Phase 1: the last real cold spell - new leaves are beginning to sprout and birds have arrived and are quite noisy during the day

Phase II: a rainy period after which it never really gets real cold again but is still somewhat cool

Phase III: Maybe one last very cool spell that last 1.5 days (sometimes this phase is omitted)

Phase IV: A period of a few weeks where it never gets cold again and highs are near 80 everyday. This is the tricky period with the best chances of severe weather

Phase V: There's two hot days near 90s thrown in accompanied by big storms

Phase VI: Suddenly summer. Warm all the day and a brief dry period before the summer thunderstorm season begins. This is usually in the time frame of the last week of May or first few days of June

Phase VII: It's summer during the first week of June

Right now I think we are between Phase II and III.

(Note: I made these up. They are not documented anywhere except in my head. These phases are simply mental, observational notes I've made to myself after having lived here for 43 springs and summers)

SYNOPSIS: Low pressure is gradually fading away from the U.S. NE coast into the Atlantic. The second of many short wave troughs and associated vorticity is approaching the region. Because the low pressure off the mid-Atlantci/NE Coast is moving away the pressure gradient will decrease significantly today, and thus the wind will be greatly reduced.

TODAY: As you can see by the satellite image, clouds are plentiful within the southern branch jet stream (also evidenced by looking outside at the sky). The jet stream is flowing directly overhead today, so we can expect high cirrus and cirrostratus clouds to be plentiful as they come across in batches. End result will be partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with filtered sunlight. Winds will initially be NW but become light from the ENE at less than 10mph by 1pm. Temperature today along the immediate coast is starting out at 57 degrees. Sea surface temperature at Cocoa Beach is about 61 degrees. After a quick warm up within 2 hours after sunrise believe the onshore wind component blowing over the 61 degree waters will keep air temperatures east of the Banana River in the mid-upper 60s (66 degrees) this afternoon. This, in addition to periods of filtered sunshine (if even that at times) will make it a little coolish this afternoon, but with the wind so light it won't be all bad. Folks from Merritt Island and points west will fare much better with a high near 71. Clouds will increase significantly within 1 hour of sunset and remain throughout the night in advance of the next shortwave trough (depicted in the image above).

TONIGHT: Low temperature this night as well as Wednesday will be very similar to what we had this morning. No big cool down. In fact, no cool down.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a light ENE wind. Morning low around 57 degrees. Chance of rainshowers in association with positive vorticity advection (as part of the short wave trough) as it passes overhead. Showers will be light and mostly likely east of US1 from 1pm through 10pm.

THURSDAY: Partial clearing but setting up for the next in the train of disturbances that are taking the roller coaster ride from the west coast , over the hump of a small ridge in the middle of the country, then descending into the base of the upper level trough which is residing over the Southeast U.S. Mostly cloudy again on Thursday with a chance of showers just about anytime. Low again near 57 but with a very slow warming trend in progress and a high near 70.

FRIDAY: Clouds pulling out, NW winds at about 8mph and a high of 72.

WEEKEND: Nice for the most part. Light NW winds shifting to SE by the end of the weekend with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low-mid 60s. Clouds on the increase by mid afternoon Sunday with rain chances again being introduced over night into Monday. This one looks like it might affect extreme south Florida / the Keys more than us. But thunder will be in the equation with it wherever its impact is most felt.

Enjoy this weather. It's actually kind of amazing to experience out transition into spring (or more importantly, OUT of winter). We might have one short cold blast sometime next week, but confidence that far out, as always is the case in the long range forecast, is very low. Enjoy.

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Monday, March 15, 2010

Happy Daylight Savings Time!

Image: Lola taking one of her last opportunities to snuggle in a coat before spring fully arrives

Sure gets light late in the morning now. But then again, it gets dark late too. Take the bad with the good ...no problem. Today's discussion will be somewhat on the benign nature as there really isn't too much to get excited about. Besides, I'm tired this morning and not in much of a jocular mood. But the weather never stops...so here we go! :

SYNOPSIS: Vast area of low pressure remains pegged just off the coast of the DelMarVa region. High pressure encompasses much of the Central U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. These two features, as they did over the weekend, will be the primary weather influences for Central Florida today.

TODAY: Another classic early spring morning across all of Florida. Other than the much warmer Keys, conditions across peninsular Florida were amazingly uniform across the boards. Lows were generally in the mid-upper 50s with a pocket or two of upper 40s where winds went calm in the Big Bend region. Conditions are strikingly similar to the past two days. It was noted this morning that area profilers were not quite showing winds as strong as yesterday.

Therefore, expect today to be mostly clear with some spots of large stratocumulus clouds developing during the afternoon which will occasionally block out the sun. Winds will not be quite as gutsy (no typo) as they were over the weekend. Expect that by the core of the afternoon they will be WNW at 18mph with a few gusts over open water areas to 22mph. The high temperature will be 71 degrees.

TONIGHT: Increase in some high cirrus clouds whisping over near or after sunset as the subtropical jet realigns its trajectory. Winds will wind down significantly after dark to the 5-10mph range. Lows once again in the mid-upper 50s.

TOMORROW: The low pressure area will begin to drift just south of due east. Lower values (height falls) of the 500mb-700mb layer will results as a fresh influx of cooler air filters south behind the circulation of the low pressure system. Thus, high tomorrow a tad cooler at 69 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Wind will become WNW-NW at 10-15mph during the afternoon. Decreasing to 5-8mph by or shortly after sunset.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing high clouds under a partly cloudy sky accompanied by a 68 degree high temperature. Increasing clouds throughout the day with a chance of rain after 2pm and lasting throughout the night. At time rain chances might be called out thru the media as high as 40%...I don't use percentages so I'll leave it at that there is a true reality that it could rain...and maybe even rumble a bit any time from 4pm Wednesday through 7am Thursday. Low near 53 degrees through Thursday's sunrise.
THURSDAY: Clearing by 10am and cooler. High of 67 degrees with very light north winds.

FRIDAY: A few scattered clouds with a low of 52 and a high again near 67 with light and variable winds. Possibly an onshore component wind (c-breeze) developing by mid afternoon to affect only the area east of the Banana River. If this does occur coastal temperatures could fall a tad during the mid-late afternoon to 65 degrees. Cool again Friday night with a low again near 53.

THE WEEKEND: Much warmer and nice! We will be in the phase where it will be warming but the next system (which will be approaching)...will yet to be close enough to impact us directly. Other than some partly cloudy skies it could very well be the first pronounced 'warmish' period of the early spring season with a high in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s. In other words totally uneventful.

NEXT MONDAY: A storm system might be realized at this point which will bring cause to introduce rain chances back into the forecast for one day only. More to come on that scenario later in the week.
-Steve Sponsler

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Sunday, March 14, 2010

Happy Pi Day - 3.14 (10)

Image: KSC Profilers depicting uniform winds -- CLICK TO ENLARGE
Pi Day is a holiday held to celebrate the mathematical constant π (pi) (in the mm/dd date notation: 3/14); since 3, 1 and 4 are the first three digits of π. March 14 is also the birthday of Albert Einstein .

Another blustery, clear, not cool but not warm day in store for Central Florida on this famous Pi Day (and maybe not so coincidentally Albert Einstein's birth date). Can it get any better? You bet! Let's add on about 10 degrees and reduce the wind by 10 mph and we'd have a perfect day, but such will not be the case. Instead, we have to contend with cool mornings dag-nab-it, and that nasty wind. Complain, complain (I know). In reality, nothing to complain about today unless one is trying to read the newspaper by an 'unsheltered from the wind' pool. "Hey, there goes the sports section into the water." Heck if I'd go in after it with the water as cold as it is.

TODAY: Another negligible impact day in store for the second half of the weekend. Sounding data from the Space Meteorological Group (SMG) and KSC profilers are all indicating that the wind just above the surface is still blowing at an approximately healthy 27kts. So, despite the light wind that we have at the time of this writing, once the sun starts glaring full bore and breaks the minuscule inversion those winds will mix to the surface and create yet another breezy day under mainly clear skies. High temperature of 70 degrees plus or minus a degree or two.

TONIGHT: Same as last night with a low in the mid-upper 50s depending on one's locale.

TOMORROW: Let's just take a print out and run it through the copy machine. More of the same although the wind might be just a smidgen lighter. High of 70.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not too often one can sum up an entire week in one sentence, but here goes. Slight increase in clouds late Tuesday through Wednesday, decreasing wind, and temperatures possibly dropping (yes, dropping) a notch with a high of 69 and lows in the low-mid 50s. There. Did it.

Rain you ask? Highly unlikely but we're going to go with the infamous silent 10 percent chance of a barely detectable sprinkle on Wednesday just to make things interesting. For the most part, if not all of it...none.

WHEN IS THERE AN APPRECIABLE CHANGE?: Seemingly never but let's shoot for next weekend. We might warm to temperatures that are what would be considered right at normal.

So I've managed to write a couple of paragraphs for you after all. Have a Happy Pi Day in recognition to your favorite mathematician. What? You don't have one?!

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Saturday, March 13, 2010

Oh Blustery Day

*Image: Morning KSC Sounding Shows 37kt wind just above the surface

"Bluster"–verb (used without object)
1. to roar and be tumultuous, as wind.

I'm packing up the blankets and long pants! After two damp days it looks like the 'dries' are here to stay for quite a while. Surface low pressure over eastern Virginia will spin quasi-stationary generally over Eastern Virginia through the weekend. High pressure is building slowly ENE-ward from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico. The combination of circulations around the low and the high will generate a healthy west wind across the entire state today. The cloudiness/rain of the past two days is all but a faded memory - - FINALLY!

TODAY: Morning low in Canaveral was 59 degrees right at sunrise. Wind was very light at that time. Expecting that once things heat up...say by 10:00am...the weak inversion depicted on the sounding will mix out and those 30kt winds will mix/descend down to the surface. Any clouds generated by the mixing which will appear before that time should also 'dry out'. Thus, expecting a blustery day with winds in the 20-30mph range...could see some higher gusts up to 35 mph (perhaps even stronger?) over the open waters of the Banana River/Indian River/Various Lakes/off the coast/St. John River Valley Basin Territory. High around 71 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees.

TONIGHT: Wind will remain somewhat elevated but die to the 10-15mph. Sky mostly clear with a low around 55 (plus or minus 4-5 degrees depending on where one is located)

SUNDAY: Same as today.

EXTENDED: No reasonable weather worth mentioning until possibly Wednesday but even then not expecting any significant weather. Only thing notable is that we may cool by 2-5 degrees Wednesday through Saturday and there will be some periods where we actually have some decent clouds.

*NOTE: We are now entering the spring season in Central Florida and this is officially Florida's Severe Weather Month (the past two days was a good sampling). I have noticed historically that some days when interesting weather is to occur that some very interesting things can occur and it is likely I'll 'bust' on some forecasts (i.e., 'fail'). But we're ready to meet the challenge.

I love early spring as it works into full bore spring and eventually summer. It can be a very exciting period with beautiful days punctuated intermittently with some nasty storms. The trees start to spurt new leaves of life...birds can be heard 1/2 hour before sunrise...and sometimes we can hear them in the middle of the night through an open window.

Very adventuresome weather too; however, these days can sometimes be very difficult to peg down when it comes to forecasting the active days. For now though, not expecting any surprises for the next 5 days. Wake me when there's a smidge of a chance of rain......

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Friday, March 12, 2010

Rain Today, Gone Tomorrow

Image: Computer generated depiction of how convoluted the surface features are forecast to be at 1pm
Very complicated reflection at the surface of what is happening aloft this morning (as you can see by the surface features provided in the image above). Despite all the complications involved, it currently appears that the threat of severe weather, or even thunder for that matter, is pretty low.
It does appear to me that there could be rotating storms if they existed sometime after 4pm; however, all resources including various offices as well as the models, indicate that by that time the rain my very well be over. I'd have to guess that the atmosphere is so worked over from this long duration rain as well as lack of (thermal) instability is off-setting anything that might make an "attempted act" (as one fellow chaser likes to call tornadoes).

TODAY: Low confidence forecast! Cloudy with light to moderate rain and maybe a rumble of thunder now and then. High today will probably not make it as warm as forecasted simply because of the rain. Let's take a shot at 71 degrees. Winds appear as though they will be light from a southerly component but pick up some by late afternoon as the front gets closer. The biggest challenge is determining just exactly when the rain will end, and if we'll actually have a 'storm' of sorts. By all indications it should be over by late afternoon and no storms, but I'm not thoroughly convinced! If we're going to get a storm it would be sometime in the 4-6pm time frame at the end of the rain period. Would be a nice finale wouldn't it? However, at this time it appears that when the parameters come together the rain will be out of the picture. Have I left you hanging? Now you know how I feel. Let's be optimistic though and go straight with the model forecast of ending the rain by mid-late afternoon with no storms.

TOMORROW: The parent low pressure that's causing all this 'weather' will be slowly oozing off to the east from the eastern U.S. coast approximately around Virginia-Maryland. It will be slow to move on so as a result circulation around it in combination with high pressure building in from the west will make for a breezy (from the west) day under partly cloudy skies and comfortably modest temperatures. It may actually end up being warmer along the coast than our previous "warm" days since we won't have a seabreeze advecting that cold air above the ocean's surface to the immediate coast. High in the low 70s and blustery.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Gradually waning west wind under partly cloudy skies and a low in the mid-upper 50s.

FURTHER OUT: Other than a weak frontal boundary affecting us on Wednesday the entire week will be uneventful. The next front on Wednesday will have only minor influence with a slight chance of showers for a yet to be determined small time frame...otherwise the next week looks to be close to what we would normally expect this time of year...just a few degrees cooler than what would be considered "normal". Lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs near 70 plus or minutes a degree or two after the front on Wednesday...before then in the low 70s.

When's the next big weather event? None on the horizon that can be stated with any degree of confidence.

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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Tornadoes/Severe Storms Possible





Above images: KSC 7am Sounding, forecast images showing fronts/rain and the low level jet at the 925mb level, and latest radar.

Mary Poppoins could have a field day today if she could get caught in a good updraft!! As mentioned yesterday, it looked like today could be a very active weather day. Nothing has changed from that reasoning for such to occur and, in fact, later tonight into very early Saturday we very well could revisit similar conditions.
TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Cloudy, breezy, and damp conditions this morning are harbingers of the incoming rain. First off! It should be noted that the short term model (RUC) is indicating No Rain for the majority of the day. So I'm keeping that possibility in the back of my mind. However, upon running a radar loop...the echos showing up along the west coast are moving steadily eastward...so that possibility might have to be discounted. The National Weather Service (NWS) has stated, and I quote:

"FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS DURING THE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO SPAWN A TORNADO."

All of the above is EXTREMELY realistic considering what is currently materializing ala the KSC Sounding. Timing places the onset of potentially severe conditions to ensue between 10am-12pm, but not necessarily at your location.

Conditions for nasty weather should wane by late afternoon; however, rain could and porbably will continue.

The following is quoted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, OK.
"DESPITE MODEST CAPE...GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LVL AND DEEP SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS. THESE MAY PRODUCE BOTH TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LARGE LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN. WHILE THE SVR THREAT MAY DIMINISH THIS EVE...THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI AS THE LLJ REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE."
What this all means is that the current setup which contains deep shear with height in a very moist environment SUPPORTS supercell thunderstorms which can generate tornadoes and strong wind gusts. This threat should begin to take shape near noon time then diminish by early evening...but yet another disturbance in the flow will again enhance the LLJ (Low Level Jet) and create similar conditions during the wee hours of Friday.

This is what a severe weather enthusiast lives for!

FRIDAY: This period will require major refinement today being potentially a BIG day....and possibly Friday as well...as many things can change. So let's just jump to Saturday.Note that I have stressed potentially....this does not mean it WILL occur..or if it does not necessarily at your location.

SATURDAY: Conditions for severe weather will have passed. The day will start out cloudy with lingering rain showers around, but conditions will gradually improve as the day wears on. One good thing out of all this...NO COLD WEATHER ON THE HORIZON.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Uneventful and nice.
Please remain abreast with your local media resources since conditions can change very rapidly given the dynamics that the atmosphere contains today...you'd never know it to step outside though.








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