"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 10, 2010

Isolated Storms Central to Scattered South Today - Very Warm

RECAP: Some thunder yesterday over East Central Florida, namely right over the Melbourne NWS around noon time then near downtown Orlando in the early evening with linger light rains in that area as well as near Kissimmee in Osceola County. The greater coverage and stronger storms were over SW Florida.
SYNOPSIS: Ridge of high pressure extends roughly from Cape Canaveral diagonally toward Central Alabama. Aloft high pressure extended across the North Gulf. Surface trough/weak front across south Georgia and Alabama.
TODAY:  Pre-model availability post being made this morning other than 5am local WRF runs. As was expected for the early portion of today, a very light land breeze developed along the coast at sunrise. KSC sounding from 6am now available showing ridge axis over the Cape at 800mb where winds are dead 0. Below that very light west component wind and above it more substantially measurable NW wind from 650mb to the jet stream level at 15-20 kts. PWAT is up from over night hours and yesterday at 2.01" which is somewhat higher than expected and temperatures aloft are relatively warm once again.
As expected, expect today's pattern to generally be much like yesterday, with most (and more) activity along the east coast from West Palm to Miami...Once again, the area south of the ridge axis running across Central Florida will be considerably different from that along and north of this axis.
The ridge axis will sink only slightly during the course of the day. Before that time expect isolated rain showers to form near the intracoastal due to the high PWAT shown at the Cape before noon time...but mainly along and west of I-95 from Port St. John and points south toward 1pm right as the sea breeze is showing hints of moving in a daytime heating has fully ensued; closer to US1-A1A over Martin County to Miami. Additional showers to form near the coast from South of Naples north to around the geography of Tampa Bay.
Sea breeze to form by 2pm with strong subsidence behind the sea breeze front squelching rain potential everywhere east of I-95 entirely with greater chances of showers or a thunderstorm from extreme SW Brevard then south to Miami along US1-I95 corridor. The region generally from West Palm to just south of Bradenton will be in deeper moisture and begin their day with weaker sea breeze boundary storms evolving into thunderstorms which will move generally W-WNW during the course of the day over far South and Southwest Florida. Only isolated showers are expected north of this line over all of Central Florida..and those will be well inland from either coast. Temperatures will work into the low 90s along the coast before the sea breeze develops with far inland locales seeing little deviation throughout the day with widespread low-mid 90s prevailing. Any collision of sea breezes in the early evening will result in an isolated storm or two far inland over the interior.
As usual, outflows from collapse of earlier larger showers or lightning storms will put a crimp in the broad brush forecast as to determination of where the stronger activity will eventually be located. Also, any storms that go up near the East Coast from Brevard to St. Lucie county near noon time will collapse and accelerate the sea breeze inland more efficiently that in those areas that do not have storms.
Overall though, only isolated showers and storms for Central Florida, scattered up to a brief period of numerous coverage from roughly St.Lucie County on the east coast to Charlotte County on the west coast.
TOMORROW-SUNDAY: Much the same scenario evolves, with some minor variations anticipated. At time anticipating lower rain possibilities over west side of Brevard to St. Lucie county from today and all points west with the crux of rains ending up in the SW corner of the state, more so on Sunday.
Essentially, a nice weekend for the Beach for all of East Central Florida after today's meager rain chances early, not so much so necessarily from southern Palm Beach County to Miami and all points west of there.
MONDAY ON: No fronts to make it through Central Florida as high pressure at all levels becomes prevalent over North and most of Central Florida. Looks like a stationary boundary could sink and simultaneously wane as far south as near Jacksonville and across all the immediate panhandle but that's about it. The only affect being lower dew point temperatures and thus cooler morning temperatures, but afternoons will still be quite warm up that way. A drier easterly flow will be the gist for most if not all of next week with rain chances highest over any portion of far South Florida and lowest over the east half of North and Central Florida.
TROPICS: No concerns at this time. Still looks possible that some development may occur in the Caribbean which would be pushed toward the Yucatan. Otherwise, Depression EyeSore could redevelop as conditions will become more favorable during the weekend. Expect we could be seeing an IGOR once again as soon as tonight or before the weekend is develop into a big hurricane.

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