"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

More Showers/Thunder Today, Possibly Strong Thursday

Shower and thunder graphic. See note. Some thunder could move off shore South of Brevard toward Ft. Pierce and maybe West Palm Beach. Storms not expected to become strong/severe except maybe Toward Southern Palm Beach County in from the coast toward Ft  Lauderdale/Miami possibly. Temperatures at 500mb not as cold today, but whether or not that will have any bearing on storm strength is hard to say. 700mb remains cool one more day, but that could only mean storms will form quickly but not be strong. Highest instability starts off along the NE Quadrant of state by become state wide by early afternoon.  
TODAY: Another day of widespread showers and thunder possible. The only real difference today from yesterday is that 500mb temperatures might not be as cold as yesterday, although, morning sounding has shown no change from yesterday. Additionally, mixing ratios are not as favorable nor are the lifted condensation levels for solid low level storm bases. All models agree that warming is forecast by early afternoon nearly state wide except far SE Florida. The frontal boundary that worked toward South Central is to lift north and dissipate today, making for another day of outflow boundary, Lake Breeze Boundary, and Sea breeze interactions once again...making it quite difficult to pinpoint exactly where any particularly heavier activity will manifest, at least at this early hour of blog posting.

Here is the current upper level situation. NOTE the location of those 500mb winds today. This will be worth noting in latter portions of the post.

Winds aloft continue weak over the state. Steering will be toward the east again, but all depends on how quickly either the east and/or west coast sea breezes move inland as to how far rainfall will reach the east coast toward late day and early evening. So far, indications are that along the east coast it will begin around 12:30pm, upon which time showers and some thunder forms within the first hour or so afterward along or west of US1 to I-95. Thus, expect most areas on the east side or even 1/2 of state today will end up CLOUDY by late afternoon at a minimum. 
 Again, above is the upper level flow for today high high up there. See the low/trough to the West of Florida by Cali?  This low will gradually be moving east, but now guidance shows it never quite clears Florida through mid-month. Instead, NOTE THE NW CORNER of the image. Another Low is moving in.

The  low toward the NW U.S., now, is forecast to drop in behind the trail left by the first one, and carve a broad upper level trough along and east of the Mississippi in the next week to 10 days. There will be at least two more frontal boundaries to contend with during this process, the first being late Thursday as the one of today dissolves.

WEDNESDAY: Wednesday looks similar to today, but possibly a bit even warmer aloft in the mid-levels. Coverage difficult to ascertain, but expecting something similar to today, with little chance of severe or even strong storms as it stands now. Today will be a good test to see what does occur in the long run though. Never say never when it comes to boundary collisions is the key.

THURSDAY: As we can see, upper level trough and winds aloft now moving in, with a surface front (not shown) moving down the state. Convergence along that boundary, sea breezes, and cold air aloft could make for another day like Monday was only more active along the immediate East Coast. 

Compare image to the one above and note the winds that are stronger are now over the state. Colder aloft as well..but see where the low to the west remains? And see the other Still in the NW States. That one could slowly merge with the southern one carving out a broad path or trough of low pressure east of the Mississippi River going into Next Week. 
THURSDAY:  Possible stronger to severe storms on Thursday from Volusia and South along the east coast ahead of a frontal boundary.

FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Easterly winds manifest, breezy and dry, but with clouds and possible showers toward the Keys and Southern Dade, but pleasant otherwise. Front will be way south, but remain in the mid-levels. In a sense, so far, it could 're-manifest' by Late Sunday..moving back north..with rain south of Volusia along the coast in doing so. 

Monday/Tuesday time frame could be stormy or rainy along the east half of state, with the Latest GFS showing up to 2" of rain if not more in this area. That is a 'new one" though and too far out in time to hold fast on to.

BEYOND: Time will tell, the all in all though is that this pattern for this time of year is fairly rare from my the amount of coverage reflects late June, with showers possible toward the third week at various times. 

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