|Forecast Image for Monday where showers and thunder could occur. Weakened|
frontal boundary across North Central by Afternoon
guidance is showing showers toward Orlando late day as a result of sea breeze convergence; however Convective Available Potential Energy for this time of year is barely suitable, and Lifted Indices are not much better than feeble. Can envision some showers at best and maybe only a good cloud deck materializing as inversion from high pressure that has been overhead weakens, with low topped showers as opposed to thunder. We are moving out of what has been a long established pattern while the 'Post big system' resulting in the tornado watch a while back slowly breaks down. Continued warm away from the beaches, reaching some 90Fs inland with light winds, and an overnight onshore wind component maybe one more night well after dark, as has been the case for a few weeks now.
|Toward Monday, boundary slides South, with another boundary approaching from the South Central Plains. Southern Branch jet will reside near the depicted Surface low and across the Northern to Central Gulf most of next week in various degrees|
IN CLOSURE: Guidance has shown at some point or another this pattern will continue to varying degrees and locations for the remainder of the state into next weekend, so I expect we will hearing about some sort of rain chance on TV or other media outlets, time and place TBD. It appears after this little dabble with frontal boundaries is over, although not shown, would be the next contender. HEAT...usually the hottest time of year near the East Coast is prior to onset of the Wet Season in Late May toward early to mid June. ..but this may not occur prior to a few days of possible strong storms here and there when all is said and done. Once any heat spell ensues, wet season follows, although there is no set rule I know of that says a heat spell has to occur at all. 3 years in a row there has been one though, lasting anywhere from 2 days to 5 days.